Rip Current in Florida, July 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING AREAS AROUND NAPLES THIS MORNING MOVED TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE EVERGLADES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND IT IS
NOW AFFECTING AREAS AROUND THE LAKE.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF PORTRAY THE SAME GENERAL
REASONING THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US SURROUNDED BY TWO LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
TO INTENSIFY AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NE US BETWEEN NOW AND THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. BY WEDNESDAY, THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE ONE OVER NORTH AFRICA
AND THE SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN US, WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC UNDER TRADE WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BE DRIVEN BY FLUCTUATIONS IN MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT CHANGES
IN THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS SMALL POCKETS OF COOL AIR TRAVEL
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS WILL CEASE TO
AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER TODAY.

THE STEERING WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. A
WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ON MONDAY
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF MORNING SHOWERS FROM STREAMERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE WEST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONCENTRATING THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER COLLIER COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE INTERACTION OF STORMS WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD STILL TRIGGER A FEW STORMS OVER THE WESTERN METRO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE INTERIOR AND WEST, AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EXPANDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CROSSING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AROUND 1 PM TODAY. THIS
AREA COINCIDES WITH A DRY SLOT AT 850 MB, AROUND THE HEIGHT OF THE
BASE OF THE SUBTROPICAL INVERSION. ONCE THIS DRY AIR REACHES THE SE
COAST THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THE
EAST COAST FOR 7 MORE HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A 40 PERCENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND A 50 PERCENT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MIXING OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FEATURE COULD START AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS TO THE INTERIOR STILL HAVE A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE CAN
SLOW DOWN CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER VARIABLE
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
IS THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST WELL DETECTED BY LIDAR AND THE NAVY
AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS. THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXED WITH
THE DUST COULD DIMINISH THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT STILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR
TWO STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE APF
TERMINAL AS MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INLAND FROM
COLLIER TO GLADES COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY SHOW
THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ON
MONDAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SETTING UP INLAND
OF THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ROUGHER SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR FOG IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL. THE
TYPICAL AREA WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, GLADES AND HENDRY, WILL
MAINTAIN VALUES ABOVE 55 PERCENT AND ABOVE 48 PERCENT FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  87  76  88 / 40 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  79  89 / 40 30 20 30
MIAMI            74  89  78  89 / 40 30 20 30
NAPLES           71  88  73  92 / 40 50 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
142300-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN TYPE FLOODING IN ISOLATED
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG BOTH
COASTS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     FLOOD            EAST NAPLES             26.14N  81.74W
07/14/2013                   COLLIER            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LOW LYING
            RESIDENTAL AREAS OF EAST NAPLES. THE WATER HAS NOT
            ENTERED ANY STRUCTURES... HOWEVER IT IS GETTING CLOSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300135

CARACOZZA