A moist westerly flow with an embedded disturbance produced significant snowfall in the northern and central mountains of western Colorado.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A moist westerly flow with an embedded disturbance produced significant snowfall in the northern and central mountains of western Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 10:14 AM MST, 1 hour 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1114 AM MDT SAT MAR 16 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT MAR 16 2013 RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WITH A BAND OF ECHOS STRETCHING FROM EC UTAH TO INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SAN JUANS. LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS FROM HITTING THE GROUND SO FAR BUT TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE. THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH IN AN AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED UNDER THE UPPER JET MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS IS PROBABLY LEADING TO A WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND LOOKING AT ECHOS THIS IS RELEASING SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL BACK WEST...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES BACK TO THE WESTERN NEVADA. ASCENT FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES OUR CWA WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHIFTING TO FOCUS TO THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE WAVE WHERE THE NEXT UPSTREAM JET MAX WILL BE APPROACHING. AS A RESULT THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND HAVE TRENDED POPS THIS WAY WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BETTER QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. MOISTURE ALSO SEEMS TO BE LAGGING FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE NAM PWATS ALMOST A QUARTER INCH DRIER. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE MODERATELY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTER IN WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS. THE COOLER AIR STILL REMAINS UP NORTH WHERE THE FOCUS IS WEAKER BUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE H7 TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL BELOW 9000 FEET BUT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION PERSISTS THIS MAY LOWER SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY AND BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE SAN JUAN PASSES WHERE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS WELL BUT NUDGED THEM UP SLIGHTLY AND THOUGH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD STILL BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL. THE WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE TEMPORARILY BUILDING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE DENDRITIC LAYER COMPLETELY DRYING OUT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STILL BE DRIFTING OVERHEAD BUT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MILD AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A MORE VIGOROUS PACIFIC WAVE WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. HOWEVER WE WILL GET ON THE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLUS OROGRAPHICS...INSTABILITY AND A SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT THE COLDEST DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SCOOTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WINTER HEADLINES JUST YET. THE WIND WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THIS STORM AS WELL BUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE INCONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND MANY BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW MIXING WELL ABOVE 500MB IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO HAMPER THIS AND THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE WARRANTED ON SUNDAY. THIS WIND AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BRING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SPS GOING AND RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT SAT MAR 16 2013 SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHES EASTWARD TO THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAIN STATES. LEFT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. THIS NW FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER UTAH AND COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL FLATTEN QUICKLY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WILL HAVE SUPPORT FROM A SEPARATE JET STREAK COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. PWATS OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WILL INCREASE FROM ABOUT 2G/KG TO 4G/KG BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK WILL CAUSE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE NORTHERN JET STREAK WILL THEN CLIP THE FORECAST REGION KEEPING INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND PRECIP GOING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. H7 TEMPS AT THE START OF THIS EVENT WILL VARY FROM -2 TO -4C AND DROP TO -10C FOR NORTHERN AREAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF OUR MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. SUMMING UP...SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAYBE SOME LGT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT MAR 16 2013 A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 10K FEET... TO THE CO CENTRAL AND SW MTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT KASE...KEGE...KMTJ...KTEX. AREAS OF MT TOP OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...CC
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
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1245 PM MDT SAT MAR 16 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW GOTHIC 38.96N 106.99W
03/16/2013 M1.5 INCH GUNNISON CO CAIC
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1300668
DCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totals of 4 to 12 inches were measured across the area. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph produced extensive blowing and drifting snow.
Snowfall totals of 4 to 10 inches were measured across the area. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph produced extensive blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions.
Snowfall totals of 4 to 9 inches were measured across much of the area. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph produced extensive blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 500255, 500254, 500253.