Wildfire in California, July 23 to 25, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
337 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TREKS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND
KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY OVER THE DESERT AND MUCH OF THE
SIERRA AS THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. AFTERWARD...
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN TULARE COUNTY AND ALSO NEAR
FRAZIER PARK/PINE MTN CLUB. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
RUNNING THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT AND
TULARE COUNTY MTNS. AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS.
THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...ALONG
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS
AREA THRU THIS EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION
AND ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FROM THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN DURING TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALSO EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TUE EVENING FOR THE TULARE
COUNTY MTNS AND ADDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BASICALLY...EXPECTING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...FURTHER NORTH
DURING TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY AND THRU NEXT MONDAY...EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
LINGER OVER THE SIERRA CREST FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH SIERRA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 22 2013... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-22      112:2006     83:1896     84:2006     56:1903
KFAT 07-23      113:2006     84:1918     90:2006     55:1897
KFAT 07-24      113:2006     87:1999     85:2006     55:1903

KBFL 07-22      113:1908     82:1984     88:1910     50:1903
KBFL 07-23      114:1931     86:1903     83:2006     54:1914
KBFL 07-24      115:1908     83:1999     83:2006     52:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING CAZ097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
CAZ096.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1059 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

CAZ096-097-231200-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1059 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH /SFOFFAHNX/.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ095-098-099-231200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
1059 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD