Wildfire in California, July 19 to 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
420 PM PDT THU JUL 18 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY INCREASE
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DRY
SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 6-8 DEG F ABOVE YDAY IN
RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE.
12Z WRF/GFS ARE INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WESTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. CONTINUED WARMING IS
ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BECOMES SITUATED
OVER CA. HOWEVER...GENERATED HOURLY HEAT INDEX GRIDS ARE
INDICATING THAT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN UPPER LOW CENTER CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ THAT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH AND TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA ON FRIDAY THE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOCAL
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE PROGGED CAPE AND LI/S DO NOT
LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PWAT/S OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
PRESENT IN THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW THAT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
IMPACT THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH BEING
PULLED UP BY THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
CA ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
REMAINS IN LIMBO AS CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW
GUIDANCE. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTEHRN SIERRA FOOTHILLS WITH SOME SPRINKLES. THE MID/UPPER MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORCAL ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO BC AND THE PAC NW ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ANY LINGERING MID/UPPER MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL CA EAST OF OUR
AREA BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS AS DRY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE
PREVALENT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 19 2013...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-18      111:1899     81:1987     83:1925     54:1987
KFAT 07-19      112:2009     86:1983     79:2006     54:1932
KFAT 07-20      111:1908     81:1973     78:1938     54:1903

KBFL 07-18      111:1908     82:1987     84:2006     52:1987
KBFL 07-19      111:2009     82:1983     85:1907     52:1906
KBFL 07-20      112:1938     84:1973     82:1979     49:1906

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
515 PM PDT THU JUL 18 2013

CAZ094>099-200015-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
515 PM PDT THU JUL 18 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND THE
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SANGER/JONES

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD