Wildfire in California, August 23 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
207 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL AS THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL AROUND 3-5 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS
THAN AROUND THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EXCEPT MUCH COOLER AROUND LOS
BANOS AND PACHECO PASS WHERE MARINE AIR HAS BEEN SPILLING IN.
LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3500 FT DEEP AND HAS BEEN DEEPENING SINCE THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN CA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT. THE DEEPER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR WHILE DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU SAT WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.

FOR SUN THRU TUE...MODELS BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
SOUTHERN CA AND EVEN INTO MUCH OF THE KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUN TO TUE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION LIES WITH THE POSITION OF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF ITS
TRACKING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE CORE WAS
LOCATED AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA AS OF THIS AM.
AM NOT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPS...OR 850 MB TEMPS AND
500 MB HEIGHTS...THRU NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY BEGIN TO WARM BACK
UP SLIGHTLY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY.

MODELS SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WED AND NEXT
THU WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE US FROM THE
ROCKIES AND EASTWARD...AND THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH BACK INTO SE CA AND THE DESERT SW. HAVE TOKEN POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW...MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY LOW RH AT THE 700-500 MB LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...OR BY THE EARLY PART OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO AT LEAST
SE CA AND OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SW. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING IN
TERMS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGES AND HOW FAR WEST THEY COME
DURING LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 22 2013... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-22      108:1897     81:1960     75:1995     50:1899
KFAT 08-23      112:1891     79:1959     78:1913     51:1960
KFAT 08-24      112:1891     81:1930     80:1913     51:1973

KBFL 08-22      109:1919     82:1983     78:2009     44:1903
KBFL 08-23      110:1913     83:1960     80:1982     49:1915
KBFL 08-24      112:1913     82:1963     79:1967     45:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
414 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

CAZ095-097>099-232315-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
414 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR TULARE AND KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.
FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST /SFOSPSHNX/.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JONES