Wildfire in Arkansas, March 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1206 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z.
LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION...TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT VSBYS...TO AFFECT
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2013/

AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BUT ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL MAINLY CONCENTRATE ON THE
IMPENDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY...FOR WHICH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

NOW...ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BE CENTERED OVER NRN MISS/ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN IMPULSE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WITH A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OR
TWO OF COUNTIES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM...NAMELY WITH HOW STRONG/WARM THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE
DURING THE DAY...AND HOW MUCH THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP.
SUSPECT THAT DRY AIR AT/NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
STRONG THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE. HAVE GONE WITH THE COLDER
ROUTE...WHICH HAS THE ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURE LINE NOT
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO
BATESVILLE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
KIND...IF ANY...WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY THE FORECAST REFLECTS SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
IN THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS DIURNAL SWINGS BRING THE TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE
COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TRUE. IT COULD BE THAT TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY NEGATE
ANY KIND OF FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO.

AS FAR AS HEADLINES ARE CONCERNED...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES...FROM BOONE OVER TO FULTON AND
ALSO INCLUDING IZARD AND SHARP TOO. CONFIDENCE IN HITTING WINTER
STORM CRITERIA IS...TO BE HONEST...NOT INCREDIBLY HIGH RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BE REACHED...AND
FURTHERMORE THE IMPACTS OF SUCH A LATE SEASON STORM WILL BE
ENHANCED DUE TO IT ARRIVING DURING SPRING BREAK WEEK. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
TIME BEING. IT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
ON FUTURE SHIFTS...OR CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL. IN OTHER
WORDS...PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS IT COULD CHANGE
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COOL AND INITIALLY
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER FLOW TURNS TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES OR
MAYBE A LITTLE MORE BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT
AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY LEADING THE WAY AS COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...FEEL A COMPROMISE OF MODELS IS IN
ORDER THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE GULF COAST
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SECONDARY UPPER LOW FORMING IN THE
NATIONS MED SECTION AS JET ENERGY STREAKS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY EARLY SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON GOING SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. SOME THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AND WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES DO NOT LOOK PROMISING...THE CAN NOT BE
DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH AS SECONDARY
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
BOTH DAYS SIX AND SEVEN BUT WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS. OVERALL WILL BLEND
THE ECMWF/GFS NUMBERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  28  38  33 /   0   0  90  80
CAMDEN AR         66  37  56  45 /   0   0  20  60
HARRISON AR       49  26  34  32 /   0   0  90  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  34  46  39 /   0   0  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  32  45  38 /   0   0  70  70
MONTICELLO AR     64  35  55  43 /   0   0  20  60
MOUNT IDA AR      61  32  45  39 /   0   0  50  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  51  27  35  32 /   0   0  90  80
NEWPORT AR        55  28  40  33 /   0   0  90  80
PINE BLUFF AR     62  34  48  40 /   0   0  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  32  41  36 /   0   0  80  80
SEARCY AR         58  29  42  35 /   0   0  80  80
STUTTGART AR      60  31  46  38 /   0   0  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1235 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT APPEARS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY IN PARTS OF THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY
FROM MOUNTAIN HOME EASTWARD THROUGH SALEM...MELBOURNE AND ASH FLAT.
IN THESE AREAS...FOUR TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

NORTH AND EAST OF JASPER TO CLINTON...HEBER SPRINGS AND AUGUSTA...
ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY MORE.

EVENTUALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM ALOFT...WITH MELTING
OCCURRING. AS THIS HAPPENS...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GROUND APPROACH
FREEZING TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...THIS WILL BE MAINLY
A RAIN EVENT...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST LIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SPRINGLIKE. SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK...SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL ON SATURDAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX SCENARIO...AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE FORECAST WILL BE FINE TUNED AS MORE DATA IS RECEIVED
AND THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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