Flood in Arkansas, February 1 to 28, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ARKANSAS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ENTERING SOUTH
ARKANSAS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH SECTIONS FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS
AN AREA OF CLOUDS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO HRO AND BPK SOON WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AND WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO
SOUTH ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST
PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. THEN
OVERALL DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.

CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING INTO NW AR WITH A QUICK COOL
DOWN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED...AND A STRATUS DECK OF
CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW THEN BECOMING LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AR. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED SOUTH OF AR AND A S TO SW FLOW HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHERN
AR...WHILE A W TO NW FLOW TO NORTHERN AR. WIND SPEEDS HAVE COME UP
TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT HAD REBOUNDED INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF AR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH A STRONG NW UPPER
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHT TO A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AR...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
AND DEVELOPS SOME OVERALL LIGHT PRECIP. RAIN WILL START...BUT
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
DUSTING MAY BE SEEN IN SOME SPOTS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND WILL END OVER
NORTHERN AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING OVER THE NE. THEN A COLD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. COOLER
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER AR WITH HIGHS
FROM THE 30S NE...TO THE 40S SW. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS AR WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
LIQUID...BUT NORTHERN AR WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
MIX OR SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER IN THE MORNING THEN LATE
EVENING WHEN TEMPS MAY BE AROUND FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH AGAIN
SETTLES SOUTH OF AR AND A MODERATING SURFACE FLOW BRINGS HIGHS
BACK TO THE 50S TO SOME 60S WITH DRY WEATHER.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUIDANCE KEEPS TRENDING NORTH WITH MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY...SO
ADDED SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     17  38  30  53 /  20   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         27  50  34  62 /  10   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       13  39  31  50 /  20   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    25  46  34  58 /  10   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  42  31  55 /  10   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     26  49  34  61 /  10   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      21  46  35  58 /  10   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  14  37  30  53 /  20   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        18  37  32  51 /  20   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     26  44  33  57 /  10   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   19  46  30  53 /  10   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         20  39  27  53 /  10   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      24  40  31  52 /  10   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1145 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PART OF THE STATE AND AS
SUCH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE SOUTH BY MORNING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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