Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST MON JUL 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO
PUSH STORMS INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WE IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEBRIS HUNG ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOME SPOTS
WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION INCREASING AND TURNING SCATTERED NOW BUT FLOW STILL LOOKS
MEAGER FOR THE TIME BEING AS EASTERLY STEERING LEVEL DEVELOPS.
PROBABLY STRUGGLING FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE FLOW INCREASING FROM THE EAST TONIGHT WE REMAIN VULNERABLE
FOR LATE CONVECTION IN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF EXTREMELY BUSY AND WET
DAYS AS A TROPICALLY ASSISTED GULF SURGE PUSHES UP THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION
TO IMPORT DEEP MOISTURE. CURRENT VALUES NEAR 1.45 INCH PW ARE SOLID
BUT WE WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT CLOSE TO 1.7 TO 1.75 THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH
FAVORABLE RESULTS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. STRUCTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD VALLEY STORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIGHT
NOW THERE'S A WEAK INVERTED EASTERLY IMPULSE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE FULL FETCH AROUND THE FAVORED
HIGH POSITION REALLY HAS TIME TO IMPORT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OF THE
SEASON BY FRIDAY. THOSE WILL PROBABLY TURN INTO DAYS OF PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS...BUT REALLY WITH THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ADJUSTMENT THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE UP CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME SIGNS THAT WE COULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL NEXT WEEKEND WITH
REDUCED COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE POSITION SHARPENS INTO EASTERN STATES
BEFORE OPENING UP THE AREA TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG EASTERLY WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z...
21Z RADAR ANALYSIS HAS STORMS OVER THE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HEAVIER ACTIVITY N AND E OF KSAD. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE TERMINALS WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE TAFS THRU 03Z FOR ALL BUT KDUG WHERE WILL HOLD OUT UNTIL
04Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LINGERING ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF KTUS...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANY DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LOW. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD. BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TOMORROW THOUGH WILL LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BECOMING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO 30S WITH GOOD NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MID-WEEK COINCIDING WITH THE INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HIT
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE 38TH DAY IN A ROW TODAY. THIS IS THE 3RD
LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD BEHIND 1987 AND 2005 (BOTH WITH 39).

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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