Heavy rain over the Schultz Fire Scar produced minor flows downstream.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain over the Schultz Fire Scar produced minor flows downstream.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST TUE JUL 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SEEN THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS ALSO NOTED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING ROUGHLY 500MB AND ABOVE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY FAVOR AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...FROM THE GRAND CANYON AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI/NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A PRETTY ACTIVE MONSOON DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STORM THREATS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF ANY EXTERNAL FORCING TO HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOTED ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN A WIDESPREAD THREAT TO WARRANT ANY WATCHES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 AM MST)...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE OVER ARIZONA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRIER AND WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN ARIZONA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH NEAR EL PASO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. PW/SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING IS NOTED ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. STEERING FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AND WEAK...WHICH WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN AND SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST A MODERATE GRADE MONSOON PATTERN...WITH STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BECOME SLOWER MOVING AND ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE LESS LIKELY...AS IS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BECOME QUIETER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH ANY WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS COULD REPLACE MOISTURE QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEARS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND DRAW MORE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...ELIMINATING ANY POSSIBLE "MONSOON BREAK" AND CONTINUING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE ONCE AGAIN OPTED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS...RAINFALL EVENTS MAY BECOME MUCH MORE CRITICAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEK. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE CHANCES OF A "MONSOONAL BREAK" ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY...WITH THE MODELS KEEPING US IN A VERY HIGH PW/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...AREA CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS ARE UNDER CONTROL...WITH THE ONLY ELEVATED THREAT AREAS BEING OUR BURN SCARS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. PAR FOR THE COURSE ON A MODERATE LEVEL MONSOON DAY...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THREAT TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN150 WILL CONTINUE TIL 20Z NORTH OF A KL50-KSJN LINE THROUGH 20Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03Z WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLD -SHRA BKN120-140 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LCL STRATUS WITH CIGS 1-3 KFT AGL MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN 05Z-12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF DROPPING AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES. .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.........MCS/PETERSON AVIATION.......MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 340 AM MST TUE JUL 23 2013 AZZ004>018-037>040-240700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 340 AM MST TUE JUL 23 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FLOW PATTERNS HAVE BECOME WEAK AND UNORGANIZED WHICH WILL FAVOR A TERRAIN DRIVEN STORM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS RECENTLY BURNED AREAS...ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. CHANCES FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST...DUE TO FREQUENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms produced flowing water across several roads from Campbell Avenue southward below the southern half of the Schultz Fire Scar. Water was also flowing across Silver Saddle Road near Mary's Drive. A rain gauge in the area measured 1.69 inches of rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 473904.