A moist southeast flow continued across southeast Arizona as upper level high pressure remained over New Mexico. Thunderstorms produced gusty winds, hail and heavy rain.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A moist southeast flow continued across southeast Arizona as upper level high pressure remained over New Mexico. Thunderstorms produced gusty winds, hail and heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 2:34 PM MST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 234 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013 .SYNOPSIS...MOIST AIR AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MINIMAL AND CONTRIBUTE TO A WARMING TREND. THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE WEST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ONWARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT ONCE AGAIN. && .DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH WEAKER CELLS FORMING OVER SOME OF THE SKY ISLANDS. HI RES MODELS ARE PERFORMING ADMIRABLY TODAY WITH MORE MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. THAT INCREASED MY CONFIDENCE THAT ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AFTER 10 PM OR MIDNIGHT. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL WORK INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THOSE DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT THE TRENDS ARE FOR A LESS ACTIVE AND WARMER DAY TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN THREAT STARTS MONDAY NIGHT... WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST UNIQUE EVENTS I HAVE EXPERIENCED IN MY SHORT 12 YEAR CAREER OF FORECASTING. THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATED...MORE OR LESS...OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LIKE MANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT IMPACT THE U.S.. THE SYSTEM MOVED EAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THEN IT TOOK A SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA AND IS NOW HEADING DUE WEST TOWARD ILLINOIS. SOME OF OUR MORE SEASONED VETERANS HAVE EVEN COMMENTED ON HOW RARE IT IS TO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKE A WESTERLY STORM MOTION AT 40 DEG. NORTH LATITUDE. IN FACT...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I HAVE INTERROGATED UPPER AIR PROFILES ACROSS NEBRASKA...IOWA AND MISSOURI TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE MOISTURE SOURCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH ARIZONA. YESTERDAY...I WAS CONCERNED THE MODELS WERE OVEREMPHASIZING THE MOISTURE CONTENT THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY REACH ARIZONA. IT APPEARED UNLIKELY THAT THE RECYCLED MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US WOULD MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH WITHOUT DRYING OUT A BIT. HOWEVER...TODAYS WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI. WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE NOT OVERLY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE WAS BETTER MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB...AND SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST INTO NEBRASKA HAD BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OVER NEBRASKA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL SHOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING WRAPPED UP IN THE WESTERLY MOVING TROUGH AND ESSENTIALLY PUSH THE MOIST AIR TOWARD ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO TODAY...I AM MORE CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PARKED SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO AND THEN THE MODELS BRING THE LOW OVER AZ WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HOLD ON TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH FRIDAY. SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN...I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE IN STORE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT CAUSING FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SE ARIZONA. WE COULD VERY EASILY EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST THESE NORTHEAST FLOW EVENTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE AND EXTRA FORCING COURTESY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. SO WE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND I RAMPED UP THE QPF A LITTLE. NO FLOOD WATCHES YET BECAUSE A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP THESE SAME TRENDS THEN WE SHOULD BE WET NEXT WEEK AND GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS...MUCH OF OUR ZONES STILL HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS SO RUNOFF WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...WE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. JJB && .AVIATION...SCT-BKN140 BKN300. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14/04Z LCL CIGS BKN070 BKN-OVC120. CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFT 14/04Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. BROST && .FIRE WEATHER...MOIST AIR IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL BRING LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A WARMING TREND AND LOWER THE AFTERNOON RH LEVELS INTO THE 20S MANY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. BROST && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON PUBLIC...BROST FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...GLUECK
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 335 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013 AZZ506-507-514-132315- SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ- 335 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MST... AT 330 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTH OF SAN MANUEL JUST EAST OF REDINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN MANUEL...CAMPO BONITO...EASTERN CATALINAS. LAT...LON 3259 11079 3266 11046 3235 11046 3236 11063 TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 162DEG 3KT 3243 11057 MEYER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
457 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013
AZZ506-140045-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
457 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
MST...
AT 454 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR...OR 24
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLOBE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH HEAVY FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY STREAMBEDS AND WASHES.
AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
EASTERN PINAL COUNTY.
LAT...LON 3314 11047 3296 11045 3311 11068 3315 11062
3315 11059 3319 11051 3319 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 131DEG 6KT 3310 11050
MEYERSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 554 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013 AZZ507-513-140145- DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ- 554 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM MST... AT 548 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF BENSON NEAR SAINT DAVID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENSON...ST. DAVID...SAINT DAVID AND KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE PARK. LAT...LON 3185 11043 3208 11029 3179 11011 3172 11030 TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 155DEG 8KT 3184 11025 MEYER
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:55 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 59 mph was measured at the Bisbee-Douglas Airport.
Quarter size hail was reported southeast of Cochise.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding of Highway 80 in the Saint David area.
Penny size hail was reported west of Pirtleville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 459557, 459560, 459564, 459567.