High Wind in Alaska, September 24 to 25, 2013

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1259 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN
TO SPREAD THEREAFTER. AL MODELS CARRY THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A DECENT DOWN SLOPE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE
GFS IS PAINTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THE ECMWF IS POURING ON THE PRECIPITATION FROM
ESSENTIALLY THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THE
NAM IS MORE REALISTIC IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH GIVING
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY PRECIPITATION ON THE FRONT END OF THE
EVENT. THEN DOWN SLOPE IT OUT AFTER THAT. SO PREFER THE NAM AT THIS
POINT.

THE NAM IS WEAKER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE
ALASKA RANGE AREAS. HENCE THE REASON THAT THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
NOT BEN CONVERTED TO A WARNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM FAIRLY
CERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR ZONES 223...225 AND 227 AND THEN 226 AS
WELL WHERE THE WATCH REMAINS.

THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SO DO NOT EXPECT HUGE AMOUNTS.
IT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE EAST OF
ZONE 217 AND SNOW FROM ZONE 217 AND EASTWARD ALONG THE BROOKS
RANGE AREA.

THE LOW THAT WILL BE SPREADING THE MOISTURE EASTWARD WILL TAKE A
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND SLIDE FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL SEND THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN GET A RESURGENCE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

CF SEP 13