Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 5, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013/
AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS AREA THIS EARLY TUE MORNING AS IT DIVES SEWD TOWARD
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SFC
EVOLVING S OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EWD
INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AREAS...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO SE TX. NUM SHOWERS COUPLED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING INVOF THE SFC LOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW
HRS. THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PUSHING EWD
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/MID TN...AND THIS TREND IS XPCTED TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING PERIOD AS PRECIP GRADUALLY EXPANDS SWD.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT TRACK CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO THE H85/LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SOME BL INSTABILITY LATER
THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISO TSTMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN NUM/WIDE SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THE LACK OF ABUNDANT SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD OFFSET THE
THREAT FOR MORE ROBUST/STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
WITH THE ONCOMING SFC LOW. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING...PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM W TO E.
LINGERING MOISTURE THOUGH MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MID TN LEADING INTO
EXTREME NE AL WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE WX CONDITIONS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES BUILDS EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS OVERALL
TREND IS XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DEVELOPING AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSLATES EWD. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN POINTING TO ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON SUN. AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES EWD...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT QUICKLY
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SE REGION.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SFC LOW OVER WRN TN WITH CDFNT ACROSS ERN AR. AS THE
CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA THIS MRNG...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW TSRA THIS AFTN. THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL END ARND 23Z AT KMSL AND BY 00Z AT KHSV. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX OVER NE
AL...ATTM THE TAF SITES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR THRU 04Z...AFTER 04Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-
     096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
729 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051900-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
729 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW HOWEVER SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS IN AFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
859 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

ALZ003-051530-
FRANKLIN AL-
859 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 930 AM CST...

AT 858AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF RED BAY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8786 3457 8753 3439 8753 3436 8801
      3454 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 261DEG 56KT 3447 8794

KULA