Drought in Wisconsin, July 24 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES...PCPN TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SVR TSTMS ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...THEN
MOVE SE INTO WI. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BRUSH THROUGH MAINLY OUR SW COUNTIES THIS MORNING...
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING AND
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVD THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY AFT/EVG WILL SETTLE INTO N IL
TODAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS TO C/NE WI. MIXING THROUGH
850-825 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH EAST FLOW BRINGING
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE LKSHR.

TONIGHT...A H8 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS GRB CWA...WITH A
20-30 KT LLJ PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. H8 DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO +14 TO +16 C...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 1.6 TO 2.0 INCHES. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SURGE INTO THE REGION...WITH H8 LI'S
DROPPING TO -2 TO -3. PCPN SHOULD BREAK OUT BY MID TO LATE EVG IN
CENTRAL WI...THEN SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE AVBL FORCING AND MOISTURE...FEEL THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZFP.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE H8 WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WI...WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL WI. HAVE
FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHERN WI...AS THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME CAPPING MAY BUILD INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IF CAPPING DOES NOT OCCUR OVER
C/EC WI...SFC BASED TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAY DEVELOP
AS A SFC LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT AS HIGH...BUT SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
OVER NORTHERN WI (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S) AND RAISED THEM OVER THE
SOUTH (LOWER 90S)...CREATING A LARGER GRADIENT OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THOUGH THE STATE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REST. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA...SO
HAVE AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...EXCEPT DURING ANY PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AND/OR CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING MAINLY THE OSH TAF SITE. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY ARRIVING AT AUW/CWA BY LATE
EVG...AND AT THE RHI/OSH/ATW/GRB TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-250945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARSHFIELD
TO MANITOWOC THIS MORNING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...THE
MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE IN ANY URBAN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
OBSERVERS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-250945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MANITOWOC THIS MORNING...
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TSK/MG