Dense Fog in Wisconsin, December 1, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

.UPDATE...

EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...LOOKS AS IF
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WATCHING SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
STRATUS ON SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AS IT ERODES AND FILLS BACK IN.
IF THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF CLEARING WOULD HAVE TO WATCH
FOR LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN MORE DENSE FOG. RIGHT NOW STRATUS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND WINDS SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
THICKENING OF FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
QUICK LOOK AT LATEST NAM GUIDANCE LAKES KMSN AND KUES DOWN TO IFR
CIGS AFTER 06Z AND HOLDING KMKE AND KENW AT MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM SUGGESTS AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING AND POSSIBLY
VFR FOR A TIME AHEAD OF PRECIP THAT REACHES KMSN LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING. CIPS ANALOGS VALID FOR
12/02 00Z SHOW AN 80 PCT CHANCE OF MVFR AND 60 PCT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...ALSO REFLECTED ON LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WILL AWAIT FULL LOOK AT GFS BUT LOOKS
AS IF CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH PCPN FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

EASTERLY WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY FOR WAVES TO FALL TO 3 TO 4
FEET OR LESS...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 03Z. LATEST 01/00Z NAM DATA SUGGEST A PERIOD OF TIME FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MENTION IS IN
HWO AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DO A FULL EVALUATION OF NEW MODEL DATA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI NOV 30 2012/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN IL. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS BEEN WAFFLING NORTH AND SOUTH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD THE CLOUDY SIDE
AFTER DARK.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...AND THEN ACCELERATE INTO
NORTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND A DECENT PUSH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND 18Z SAT AND INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY 21Z. THIS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW SATURATION UP TO 5000 FEET WITH VERY
LITTLE OMEGA. THE FORCING MAY BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO DEVELOP
LIGHT RAIN...SO DRIZZLE MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...IT IS LIKELY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY DUE TO THE STEADY SE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOW
STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CLOUDS
THINNING IN SOUTHERN WI MID SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THEY WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THAT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

KEPT SAT MAX TEMPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...DESPITE THE STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10C.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC DEWPTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 40S INTO
CENTRAL MO AND GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND THREE QUARTERS INCH.  STILL LOOK ON TRACK ON PIECE OF
MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING RAPIDLY
E-NE ACROSS NRN PLAINS ON SAT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES SAT
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...ENOUGH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO MAKE USE OF DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO
BRING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SRN WI SAT NIGHT.  ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP LIKELY WORDING GOING DURING THE EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT AS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SHORT WAVE
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.  DRIER AIR AND LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ERODE LINGERING STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND A MILD DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODES.  SHOULD BE WARMEST IN THE
SOUTH...REACHING THE MID-UPPER 50S.

EXPECT TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP LATE SUN AFTN/EVE BEFORE SOUTH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ON
MONDAY DESPITE WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW.  KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR 3 DEC.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO REDUCE
DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

BRISK WESTERLIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
-SHRA ACROSS SRN WI MONDAY EVENING AS STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION.  LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT AS
DEPICTED BY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...GEM AND UKMT.  THREAT OF PRECIP
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  COOLER...
DRIER FLOW SETTLES OVER SRN WI LATER MON NGT...HOWEVER COLDEST AIR
NOW LAGGING BEHIND AND MAY ONLY SKIRT SRN WI ON TUESDAY. HENCE
-SHSN AND FLURRIE THREAT WOULD REMAIN FARTHER NORTH AS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO SRN WI.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK...BUT
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS YET ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS
EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WED
THRU FRI. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SHORT WAVE GAINS GREATER
AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLDER...MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURNING
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.  GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOWING FASTER
EWD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES...SO WL
NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING ON THU IN THE WEST. STILL APPEARS THAT BULK
OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIQUID AND OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THAT FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD MORNING AND THEN
ACCELERATE INTO NORTHERN WI BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT
FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...PROBABLY LOWERING TO AROUND
2SM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LIFT TO MVFR OR BETTER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MKE AND ENW...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. LOOK FOR PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND NOON
AND SOUTHEAST WI BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
SHEBOYGAN UNTIL MID EVENING. BRISK ELY WINDS CAUSING THE HIGH WAVES
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WITH RESULTANT
LESSER WAVE HEIGHTS.

CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020315-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
911 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

LMZ643>646-020315-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
911 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

REM
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