Damaging Winds in Washington, July 9, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
225 AM PDT Mon Jul 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region Today...with
only minor relief afterward as high temperatures remain above
average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms will spread
across much of the Inland Northwest Today and tonight. More
mountain thunderstorms are possible through much of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The axis of the high pressure ridge over
the area is slowly moving east and is roughly placed over Western
Montana during this time interval. Additionally shortwave
disturbances running up along and under the west side of this
ridge will fire off convection and deflate the ridge some. Still
the lower level thermal ridge axis positioning over a great deal
of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho suggest today will be
another very hot day. Thunderstorms that fire off in the forecast
area or to the south in Eastern Oregon should have a storm track
that takes them north/northeast at about 20 mph or so. Pressure
gradient across the cascades should tighten overnight suggesting
increase in gap winds. Pops continue overnight into Tuesday with
models depict more shortwaves deflating the ridge and the ridge
axis moving further eastward into Central/Eastern Montana which
suggests keeping pops for thunderstorms and allowing temperatures
to cool off and relative humidity to increase Tuesday. /Pelatti

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are in much better agreement
tonight, but are still showing timing issues on just how fast and
deep to bring in the next several weak disturbances. I like the
timing of the EC/GEM better and will follow that guidance through
the end of the week. The four corner's high will remain in
place...but by Tuesday night and Wednesday the ridge axis that had
stretched all the way to Alberta will now begin to bend down and
flatten in response to a series of weather disturbances that will
move through the region beginning Wednesday night.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the ridge shifts east with the flow
becoming southwest to west across the Pacific Northwest. Some mid
level instability will remain for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern highlands. Temperatures will
remain on the warm side of normal but the region should begin to
see a slight cooling trend.

Wednesday night through Friday the aforementioned trough will
weaken as it crashes full on into the ridge of high pressure. This
should result in cooler temperatures and increased winds. Not much
in the way of moisture is associated with this wave and stayed
with a mainly dry forecast through Thursday. A secondary and much
weaker wave comes through on Friday. The main moisture tap remains
north in B.C. but enough will move along the Canadian border to
support some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and through the weekend the models are all indicating a
much deeper upper level low forming over northern B.C. then track
south and east through B.C. Sunday before ejecting east across the
Canadian prairie Monday and Tuesday. The low just barely brushes
the northern mountains on Monday, but should bring the chance of
showers across the extreme northern zones. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cluster of thunderstorms will move north along the
northern Cascades overnight and impact KEAT with gusty winds,
occasional lightning and brief but potentially heavy downpours.
These storms will continue tracking north through the night, driven
by an upper level disturbance. Isolated storms will be in the
vicinity of KMWH through the early morning hours. The remains of
convection will pass through KLWS and KPUW with elevated showers and
gusty winds. Some of the gusty outflow winds will spread toward the
Spokane area, but VFR and dry conditions will prevail. Convection
will spread across eastern Washington and into north Idaho, while
clearing develop in the east slopes of the Cascades by late
afternoon into early evening. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  91  64  92  63 /  20  50  10  10  10   0
Coeur d'Alene  97  63  89  60  89  59 /  20  50  20  20  10   0
Pullman        94  60  89  57  90  59 /  30  50  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      102  69  99  67 100  68 /  30  50  20  10  10  10
Colville      100  58  94  58  91  59 /  20  50  30  10  10   0
Sandpoint      95  56  87  57  87  54 /  20  60  30  30  20  20
Kellogg        97  60  88  57  88  56 /  20  50  30  30  10  10
Moses Lake    100  67  99  62  98  64 /  30  20  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      99  68  96  65  97  67 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Omak          100  63  98  61  96  62 /  30  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
     Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
124 PM PDT SUN JUL 8 2012

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ036>038-092030-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
124 PM PDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WAZ031>035-041>044-092030-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WENATCHEE AREA-EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
124 PM PDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON
AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASED LIGHTNING RISK IN AREAS WITH DRY FUELS...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE STARTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH
AN INCREASED LIGHTNING RISK IN AREAS WITH DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE STARTS.