Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 9, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH CLOUDS
FORMING OVER THE MTNS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING CONVECTION
TO BE ONGOING ATTM...BUT RADAR REMAINS PPINE. STILL EXPECT AN EARLY
INITIATION OVER THE MTNS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NO CIN SHUD
LEAD TO CONVECTION BEGINNING BY NOON. ALSO STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE NORTH AND SCT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...NUMEROUS COVERAGE
COULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE OR NE GA OF THE BOUNDARY SLIPS AS
WELL. SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DCAPE
FCST. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL WITH A NICE AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING...ESP KGSO. SHEAR WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP FCST SHOWS 20
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NC. ALSO...COLD POOL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT FCST...SO
MAIN CHANGES WERE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF DAYBREAK...A CONVECTIVE LULL...SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN CUT
BACK BEFORE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS WERE DONE AS WELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE OLD ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING
OFF THE E COAST AND THE SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE DEEP
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES DOWN
ACROSS TN/NC BY THE END OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THAT SHOULD EASILY BE THE
CASE TODAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC MIGHT BE LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING OVER THE MTNS DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AND NO CAP WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY
THAT SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE NC. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY
POP ACROSS THE NC PART BUT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO A CHANCE OUTSIDE THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACRS NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS QUITE WARM AGAIN...BUT
A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
NECESSARY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOWS WELL INTO THE EVENING SO AT LEAST A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALREADY OVER OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY...AND WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT...IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. GENERALLY THERE IS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT...AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE NAM FORMS A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY. INITIALLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT BY WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME
UPSLOPE FROM THE ESE. AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY LATELY...AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS MAY
DEVELOP GRADUALLY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH FORM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY....WITH WEAK RIDGING OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM NC ACROSS THE GULF
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
UNLESS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE NORTH TODAY THAT WILL FOCUS CONVECTION
ACROSS TN/NC/VA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT WILL IMPROVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT STARTING SOME TIME LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO 20Z WAS CHOSEN AS THE START TIME FOR A PROB30
AND CHANCES WERE RAMPED UP FROM THERE. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL
EARLY EVENING FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP S AND E INTO METRO
CHARLOTTE...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD THAT THE AIRFIELD WILL BE
AFFECTED BASED ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A NEARBY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION COMPARED TO KCLT. ONGOING
STORMS SHOULD AVOID KAVL/KHKY THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MTN VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT RECENT NIGHTS HAVE SEEN ONLY
A BRIEF PERIOD...SO IT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
527 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY...AND WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS IN NORTH CAROLINA THAN IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR GEORGIA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW CAESARS HEAD       35.04N 82.68W
07/08/2012                   PICKENS            SC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            TREES DOWN IN PARK AND LIGHTNING STARTED FOREST FIRE.

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SPARTANBURG         34.99N 81.93W
07/08/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PINE MOUNTAIN      34.92N 83.17W
07/08/2012                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG SC28 NEAR THE GA STATE LINE.

&&

TW