A front brought heavy snow to the Mt Baker area of the North Cascades.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
A front brought heavy snow to the Mt Baker area of the North Cascades.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 9:35 AM PST, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
935 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WARMER WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS
REACH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SENT A COUPLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS AFD THIS
MORNING...ADDED A BIT ABOUT THE EASTERLY GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND MADE A CORRECTION TO THE SYNOPSIS.
TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...BUT THERE
ISN'T MUCH COLD AIR LEFT TO DRAIN INTO THE AREA AND BLI-YWL GRADIENT
HAS FALLEN FROM -15MB 24HRS AGO TO -8MB. THAT GRADIENT WILL TICK UP
A NOTCH TODAY AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
JUST OFFSHORE INCREASES OVER WRN WA AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT IS IN EFFECT UP THERE TIL 4PM SEEMS JUST ABOUT RIGHT...WITH
SOME MIXED PCPN TODAY AND THEN TURNING OVER TO RAIN BY EVENING. THE
LIGHT NE WIND UP THERE NOW SHOULD SWITCH TO A SOUTHEAST WIND AS THE
LAST OF THE COLD AIR FINALLY SCOURS OUT AS WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS FRONT JUST OFFSHORE START TO MIX DOWN. FOR THE REST OF THE
LOWLANDS OF WRN WA THE MOST WE MIGHT SEE IS SOME WET SNOW...BUT THE
MILD RAINY WEATHER FOR LATER TODAY IS AN EASY FORECAST. THERE ARE
MANY WAYS TO WARM WRN WA...EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CASCADES...ANY
MIXING FROM THE INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT...AND THE FACT THAT WE
HAVE ALREADY GRADUALLY WARMED OVERNIGHT. I SEE THE SEA-EAT CROSS
CASCADE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED TO -10.6MB AT 9AM...SO WINDY EASTERLY
GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CASCADE PASSES. THE 24HR CHANGE IN TEMPS
OVER WRN WA AT 8AM RANGED FROM 2 TO 12 DEGREES AS THE FRASER OUTFLOW
AND NLY WIND WE HAD YDY PETERED OUT OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN FNTL BAND SHOULD REACH WRN WA THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGEST PTN OF THE FRONT WITH
THE MOST MOISTURE AND WARMTH ALOFT OVER WRN WA 4-7PM. THEN OVERNIGHT
THE NAM SHOWS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER OREGON...PUSHING BACK UP OVER
THE CASCADES BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO SURGES
OF RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS AND TWO SURGES OF HEAVY MIXED PCPN AND SNOW
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE OLYMPICS MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WILL BE RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO +4C...BUT OVER THE CASCADES COLD
AIR WILL KEEP THE PRECIP SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THE PASSES...WHILE ALONG THE MORE EXPOSED WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES THE SNOW LEVEL RISES. EXPOSED PEAKS LIKE MT RAINIER COULD
SEE THE SNOW LEVEL RISE TO 6000 FEET TONIGHT...WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AT THE SURFACE IN THE PASSES. THE NORTH CASCADES WILL
PROBABLY SEE OF AN AREAL AVERAGE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO ARND 2000FT
TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS PRETTY TRICKY TOO AND IT COULD VERY WELL SLOPE
FROM A PEAK OF 5000FT AT MT PILCHUCK IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY TO A SNOW
LEVEL CLOSE THE SURFACE WAY UP AT MARBLEMOUNT.
IN THE AFTERNOON FCST DISCUSSION I WILL ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AS WHAT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE THE BENT BACK
TROUGH COMES THRU WRN WA...THE NAM SHOWS A 16MB PDX-BLI GRADIENT AT
4AM WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT OVER THE PUGET SOUND BASIN. I HAVE
NOT HAD A CHANCE TO EXPLORE ANY OF THE GUIDANCE FROM THE UW
MESOSCALE MODELS THOROUGHLY...BUT THE UW 4KM WRFGFS SHOWS SE GALES
COASTAL WATERS AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY ARND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ON THE COAST...WITH A BRIEF SW GALE OVER PUGET SOUND AND A
WLY GALE IN THE STRAIT AT 12Z. THAT IS NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS THE
NAM SLP FCST SUGGESTS. 19
.LONG TERM...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST 12Z GFS SHOWS A PRETTY
TYPICAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TAP FOR SUN NITE...HEIGHT RISES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH SET UP A MILD SW FLOW AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE FOR PROBABLY TWO FNTL WAVES TUE AND WED...THAT WILL BE WARM WET
AND WINDY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN COOLING
WITH STRONG WLY FLOW ALF THU AND FRI...BUT THE FLOW TURNING MORE
NWLY AND HEIGHT RISING LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
DIVERGE SHARPLY AFTER THAT...AS MUCH AS I HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. 19
&&
.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY ON TOP
OF THE SNOW BLANKETING ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON COULD CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE RAIN COMBINED WITH LOWLAND SNOW MELT COULD
DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH AND CHEHALIS RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO MINOR.
ALL AREAS COULD SEE EXCESSIVE SURFACE RUNOFF WITH PONDING OF
WATER...PONDING AROUND CLOGGED DRAINS OR CULVERTS...AND/OR SMALL
STREAMS GOING OVER THEIR BANKS. WORSE AREA FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS OF DEEP LOWLAND SNOW AND HEAVIER
RAIN LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW MELTING INTO THE SOIL AND THE
UPCOMING ADDITION OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
LANDSLIDES.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT AND THE SNOW MELT IS A BIG
PART OF THAT UNCERTAINTY. THE TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO THE MID
FORTIES WHICH WOULD NOT ARGUE FOR A FAST MELTING OF
SNOW...HOWEVER...SNOW MELT CAN ACT IN SUCH A WAY AS TO HOLD THE RAIN
WATER AND THEN MELT AND RELEASE THE WATER IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE RIVER RUNOFF. IT IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THE SNOW WILL MELT. RIVER MODELS DO
NOT ALWAYS HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO SPECIFIC RIVER
FORECASTS MAY NOT FULLY INDICATE THE EXISTING FLOOD RISK.
BOWER/FELTON
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY AS A PAC
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. WARMER MARINE AIR
HAS SPREAD INLAND TO AROUND KPAE THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THE LAST AREA TO
TRANSITION WILL BE THE N INTERIOR AS FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW CONTINUES.
HOWEVER NE PRES GRADIENTS ARE DECREASING AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SWITCH TO S/SE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT A MIXED BAG
OF PRECIP FOR AREAS LIKE KBLI...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. 33
KSEA...RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. S/SE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. 33
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT INCREASING S/SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A
STRONG PAC SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN WA. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT... AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A BURST OF SOUTH WINDS TO THE INTERIOR...MAY SEE GALES FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. POST FRONTAL GALES ARE ANTICIPATE THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
ITS COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GALES ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TO 20 TO 25 FT LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CREATING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. 33
&&
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR UNTIL 4
PM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AND
THE STRAIT UNTIL 10 AM.
.WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
.GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SATURDAY
MORNING.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
CANAL.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTMLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1100 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FREEZING RAIN 2 NNE PUYALLUP 47.21N 122.26W
01/19/2012 M1.10 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER
FINAL ICE ACCRETION TOTAL TAKEN LAST NIGHT...CALLED IN
THIS MORNING.
&&
DDAMICO1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
NWAC station at Mt Baker recorded 18 inches in 24 hours ending noon Jan 21.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 364976.