Severe thunderstorms blossomed over the Southern Appalachian region due to the presence of a weak upper level impulse and a cool front building south into a moderately unstable air mass. Warm temperatures aloft limited hail production but wind damage was widespread during the event.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Severe thunderstorms blossomed over the Southern Appalachian region due to the presence of a weak upper level impulse and a cool front building south into a moderately unstable air mass. Warm temperatures aloft limited hail production but wind damage was widespread during the event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 2:14 PM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF MCS THAT STARTED THE DAY OFF OVER SE TN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES ROSE MORE MODESTLY AND REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SITES AND LOCATIONS IN SW VA AND NE TN ONLY IN THE 70S. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED ACROSS TN BUT HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN SW VA WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. THINK THERE WILL STILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PEAK HEATING IS REACHED A LITTLE LATER TODAY BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER NOT MUCH AS FORMED YET ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH. NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER IN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK INTO KY EARLY TONIGHT AND INTO SW VA LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN LONGER THIS REGION TONIGHT AND ELSEWHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEKA SURFACE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH BUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MORE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER SW VA. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF CANADA SQUASHES THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE WHICH CHANGES THE FLOW AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO SWELL TEMPORARILY OVER US FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS ITS TAIL THROUGH OUR AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NOW FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS PERIOD...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME POPS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THEN...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MARGINAL...SO KEEPING POPS PRETTY LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHEN THE FRONT GETS CLOSE...JUST TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW...SO NOTHING ABOVE "CHANCE" POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD NOW. FOR TEMPS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE MORE ON SUNDAY--LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE CENTERED ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TIMING...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL GET PRETTY WET DURING A 48 HOUR WINDOW THAT I'VE CENTERED ON SUNDAY RIGHT NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 95 68 94 70 / 20 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 92 64 91 66 / 20 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 92 64 92 63 / 20 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 89 58 88 59 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && TD/GM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1214 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-011600- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 1214 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 /1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED INTO ALABAMA THIS MORNING TAKING WITH IT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY BE A TRIGGER FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 456 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 VAZ002-006-312130- RUSSELL VA-WISE VA- 456 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CITY OF NORTON...WISE AND EXTREME WESTERN RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT... AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF WISE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT POUND AND NORTON. IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:45 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were reported down along Brummitt Hollow Road and Guest River Road.
A tree was reported down along Darden Drive one mile east southeast of Wise.
Several trees were reported down in the Pennington Gap area.
One tree was reported down along Big Hill Road.
One tree was reported down along Campground Road.
One tree was down off Campground road.
One tree was reported down along Flatwoods Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 399332, 399337, 399338, 399341, 399340, 399342, 399343.