Drought in Texas, October 30 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT A MORE SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A FEW-SCT CU ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD FLYING WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...500MB TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS FOR STREAMER SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD
STEADILY EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES
WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS BRACKET THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND WEST. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE OVERALL TEMPS
TO WARM QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 500 MB TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL PUSH STEADILY INLAND THURS AND FRI WHICH WILL START
TO ERODE THE RIDGING TOWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH WILL START TO PULL IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES FROM SAT
THROUGH MON. THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE POPS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON
AND AFTER SAT NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION ON MON ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BE FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH WILL NOT RESULT IN A DRASTIC
DROP IN TEMPS.

THE ECMWF/GFS AND CMC MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE STRENGTH AND OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE
3 TO 7 DAY RANGE. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS POPS
AND TEMPS IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE IS ALSO PRETTY STABLE. THE
ECMWF TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE
THROUGH MON AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS AND
POPS THROUGH DAY 7.

THE CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY BUOY 42020
REPORTS A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 1250 PM CDT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS TONIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT THE BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PGF MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX TO PUSH THE SURFACE
WINDS UP CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

TXZ248>257-301100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
800 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-301100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
800 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.