Drought in Texas, October 23 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE PATCHY LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
CEILINGS WERE 1600 FEET AT KHBV TO 3200 FEET AT KBRO AND KSPL. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FROM
AROUND 08Z THROUGH 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY MAINLY AFTER 15Z THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS
WERE NEAR 3200FT AT KBRO TO NEAR 3800FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... GRADUAL
SURFACE DRYING FROM VERTICAL MIXING IS CUTTING AT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ARE DIMINISHING
ROUGHLY ON SCHEDULE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO ABOUT 25 MPH ON AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT STARTING TO RELAX
THIS AFTERNOON AS AMBIENT PRESSURES RISE IN DEFERENCE TO BUILDING
MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
WINDS WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SLOWLY START TO
BACK DOWN AFTER ABOUT 4 PM...WITH ANY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
NOW CONFINED TO BASICALLY KENEDY COUNTY.

TONIGHT...STEADY AND MORE MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
WORK WESTWARD. WINDS OVER LAND SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING TO 5 TO 10 MPH. THE MORE ONSHORE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING IN A LITTLE BIT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN PLAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM ABOUT 3 OR 4 AM THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW TO MID CLOUD
DECK MAY ALSO GET SET UP...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE 281 CORRIDOR IN THE
LATE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD DRY OUT
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS VERY QUICKLY AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOONTIME AT THE LATEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE VALUES SEEN TODAY. WINDS WILL BE DOWN QUITE A BIT
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP EXPECTED AMID A DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE OVER MEXICO
STARTS TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH WITH VERY
LITTLE MODIFICATION IN THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. THIS STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND REACH
THE LOWER VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET BUT ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH HAS THE FRONT HERE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. KEPT THE FRONT ARRIVAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AT THIS TIME TO SEE ITS PROGRESSION WITH THE MODELS. LEFT 30 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE CWA DECREASING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND DROP INTO
THE MID 70S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH WARMER MID 70S THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT
LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MID 50S AND IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN INTO MONDAY AS A MORE
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF US.

MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS FROM THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND OFFSHORE BUOYS AND OIL RIGS HAVE FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 FEET REPORTED AT
THE BUOY. GIVEN THE STEADY WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 20 KTS SUSPECT
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD PEAK OVERALL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR
NOW...BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN BEFORE 6 PM TONIGHT.
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF WATERS. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE
AND STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE COAST AIDS
FOR THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT
MORE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE VALLEY
FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BEHIND IT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BUILD
SEAS UP TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH BREEZE TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...SE FLOW RETURNS WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  90  73  90 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          71  91  72  91 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            69  93  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              71  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  87  75  89 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
931 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

TXZ248>257-231630-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
931 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-231630-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
931 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JGG/MC