Isolated strong and severe thunderstorms developed late in the afternoon of the 16th as a weak upper level disturbance interacted with a dryline. Ample instability and high thunderstorm cloud bases resulted in mostly marginal severe hail occurrences; although one instance of very large hail up to two inches in diameter was observed.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Isolated strong and severe thunderstorms developed late in the afternoon of the 16th as a weak upper level disturbance interacted with a dryline. Ample instability and high thunderstorm cloud bases resulted in mostly marginal severe hail occurrences; although one instance of very large hail up to two inches in diameter was observed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 2:58 PM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 .SHORT TERM... THE FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3500 J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY NOSING INTO THE AREA WITH AREAS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND NO SURFACE BASED CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH ABOUT 30KT OBSERVED. ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF ACCAS HAS BEEN OBSERVED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LUBBOCK AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN INITIATION TIME AFTER 21Z. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE EXPECTED WITH STORMS...TORNADOES ARE NOT AS LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE AGAIN ON THE CAPROCK. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX FURTHER EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY ZERO OFF THE CAPROCK WITH VERY STRONG SURFACED BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. JDV && .LONG TERM... ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THAT MAY LIMIT STORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT. CHANCES FOR STORMS...A FEW ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE BETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN LOW...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THANKS TO A LOW-LEVEL JET ALL CONTRIBUTE TO DECENT INSTABILITY LEVELS. DID INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT HELPS TO FOCUS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THEN CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP IN ON A BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND TAKING IT FURTHER EAST RATHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE WILL HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED. JORDAN && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DRYLINE. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE ELEVATED OR LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 46 84 52 81 46 / 10 0 0 20 30 TULIA 53 83 58 80 49 / 20 10 20 30 40 PLAINVIEW 51 82 58 81 50 / 30 10 20 30 50 LEVELLAND 51 82 59 82 50 / 30 10 10 30 40 LUBBOCK 54 83 60 81 53 / 30 10 20 30 50 DENVER CITY 52 82 56 84 50 / 30 10 10 20 40 BROWNFIELD 53 83 60 83 51 / 40 10 20 30 40 CHILDRESS 57 84 62 80 60 / 30 20 20 30 60 SPUR 55 83 61 80 58 / 40 20 20 30 50 ASPERMONT 59 80 64 79 59 / 40 20 20 30 50 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040. && 01/14
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 TXZ021>044-171715- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONVECTIVE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD LINE. A DRYLINE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
TXZ035-162130-
LUBBOCK-
404 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUBBOCK COUNTY...
AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LUBBOCK
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.
LAT...LON 3356 10207 3357 10208 3358 10208 3383 10186
3369 10165 3339 10196 3339 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 226DEG 23KT 3345 10205SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
TXZ029-035-162200-
HALE-LUBBOCK-
430 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUBBOCK AND HALE COUNTIES...
AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF ABERNATHY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CITY OF LUBBOCK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.
20
LAT...LON 3351 10202 3371 10204 3403 10175 3402 10156
3365 10156 3348 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 226DEG 25KT 3371 10188SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
TXZ040-041-162200-
LYNN-TERRY-
431 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TERRY
AND LYNN COUNTIES...
AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.
20
LAT...LON 3301 10250 3339 10225 3338 10156 3297 10184
3296 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 226DEG 25KT 3306 10230The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 12 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:47 UTC.
5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained storm spotter measured 1.25 inch diameter hail two miles north of New Deal. No damage was reported.
A storm chaser reported quarter size hail covering the ground six miles northeast of Abernathy.
The public reported nickel size hail in southwest Lubbock.
A storm chaser reported quarter size hail covering the ground five miles southeast of Petersburg.
A storm chaser reported hen egg size hail covering the ground five miles east of Petersburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 364261, 364262, 364263, 364264, 364265.