Wildfire and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 25 to 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPED NEAR KCDS...AND NORTH OF KLBB EARLY
THIS EVENING. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KCDS. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A VCSH
AND -TSRA TEMPO GROUP AT KLBB AND KCDS RESPECTIVELY. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A PROB30
COMMENCING AT 26/18Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES APPEAR VALID...AS WINDS
BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO PROMOTE SCT- BKN VFR CLOUD
DECKS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING AND CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON AREAS EAST OF LUBBOCK IN THE
VICINITY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS AND ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN NEAR THE NM STATE LINE WHERE A SECONDARY INSTABILITY AXIS IS
LOCATED WAS WELL AS A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT...
PREVIOUS FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD AS COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN SPOTTY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE NM
LINE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT THAT IS
DRAPED ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LYING ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST INHERITED 30 PCT POPS ARE GOOD. LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL FOCUS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE WITH MUCH LIKELY GOING TO HINGE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ONCE CONVECTION INITIATES.

TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TAKING A BACKSEAT TO POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SO. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WARMING SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR 105 NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. AS FOR LOWS...THE LAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT FRONTAL INTO ACCOUNT FRONTAL INTRUSION FOR
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THAT TREND.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS STILL HOLD ON TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF
THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES VERY SUBTLE WITHIN THE
500MB HEIGHT FIELD AND POSITIONING OF IT IS DIFFERENT AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
DECREASING ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MAY BE AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT MAY
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUD BASES. WOULD ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TAKES OVER THE REGION.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST TO START OUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL DRASTICALLY RAISE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY BREAKING 40C OFF THE CAPROCK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE RIDGE POSITIONING BUT
ALL SIGNS INDICATE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  92  66  93  66 /  30  20  30  20  20
TULIA         70  92  67  93  68 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     71  92  69  93  69 /  20  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     71  96  69  94  68 /  20  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       73  97  71  96  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   72  97  69  95  67 /  20  30  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    72  97  69  95  68 /  20  30  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     74 101  74  99  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
SPUR          74 100  72 100  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     76 102  76 101  74 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

TXZ021>044-261645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BRING THE RISKS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.