Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 25, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SO FAR THE WORKED-OVER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS MORNING/S MCS HAS NOT
SPAWNED ANY NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CU FIELD IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THEREFORE IT SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ABOUT 20
KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT
INTO THE FOOHTILLS AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE WRF-ARW
AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM ARE BOTH ALREADY WAY OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION...THOUGH THEY DO INSIST THAT VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I/LL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
MTNS AND THE LOWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL WEAK BNDRY/S OVER THE REGION IT/S
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS...ONCE THEY FORM...WILL WORK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET ONCE THEY START TO FIRE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF A
HOT DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD RISE INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND IN ELBERT COUNTY GEORGIA. CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP
THE HEAT INDEX BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS...VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT DURING THE
AFTN...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE KY/TN DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE MORNING AS A L/W TROF DEEPENS
OVER THE MID WEST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS BY MID DAY...PUSHING
EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL FEATURE LLVL BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 20 KTS WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A FEW
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POSSIBLY YIELDING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

THE LATE DAY PASSAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE U90S EAST OF THE MTNS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE U60S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 TO REACH NEAR 105 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED EAST OF I-85.

ON SATURDAY...THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY IN A POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH NW LLVL WINDS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MILD
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS
AND MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO DECREASE A
FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW LAYER OF CIN MAY EXIST BELOW THE LFC
AND AND AN WEAK INVERSION WITHIN THE MID LEVEL MAY LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROF I WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP...THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE MID 30S COULD SUPPORT A
DAMAGING WET MICROBURST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR...OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 5-10 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND 70S MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE TDWR SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY WORKING
TOWARD THE SURFACE...AND I HAVE SW WINDS STARTING AT 19 UTC. TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
THIS EVENING. IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR EAST AS THE AIRFIELD BY LATE EVENING...BUT I DON/T HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE I JUST HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THE
LATE AFTN HOURS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THU AFTN.

AND ELSEWHERE...SCT TSTMS SHOULD START TO FIRE OVER THE MTNS WITHIN
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE UPSTATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR WITH A VCTS AT MOST
AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTN...LIGHT TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SW
ON THURSDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT TOMORROW...BUT THERE DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
BEST CHC OF OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN
AREAS THAT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ071-072-
     082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>008-261900-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
249 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-261900-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-
507-509-SCZ001>005-010-261900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
249 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING SMALL AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

NCZ056-068-069-504-252015-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GREATER BURKE-LINCOLN-
328 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURKE...NORTHWESTERN
CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...VALE...VALDESE...PLEASANT GROVE...MORGANTON...ICARD...
  GLEN ALPINE...DREXEL...COOKSVILLE...CONNELLY SPRINGS...CASAR AND
  BELWOOD.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3582 8162 3583 8160 3578 8156 3578 8152
      3556 8127 3539 8161 3555 8170 3558 8169
      3561 8173 3579 8183 3587 8168

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

NCZ035-501-502-252030-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL AND WESTERN ALEXANDER
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTERSON...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...SAWMILLS...RHODHISS...LENOIR...HUDSON...
  GRANITE FALLS...GAMEWELL...ELLENDALE...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAH'S
  MOUNTAIN.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3593 8125 3576 8140 3577 8143 3579 8145
      3578 8149 3595 8174 3610 8162

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

NCZ036-056-069>071-252030-
CATAWBA-GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
341 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CATAWBA...EASTERN
LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN GASTON...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHERN
IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
  ISLAND LAKE...LAKE NORMAN...TERRELL...NEWTON...MAIDEN...LUCIA...
  LOWESVILLE...DENVER...DAVIDSON...CORNELIUS...CLAREMONT AND CATAWBA.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3553 8075 3531 8101 3562 8130 3575 8115

07