Dense Fog in Texas, January 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING NEAR A KLFK TO KPOE
TO KLFT TO MARSH ISLAND LINE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE
CALM AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. BEHIND THE FRONT...BASICALLY COASTAL SERN TX AND SWRN
LA...SRLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WHILE STRATOCU OFF THE GULF HAS
MOVED OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. THUS AS OF
10Z HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE INHERITED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANGES. ELSEWHERE ON THE SFC MAP...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE FAR ERN GULF...KEEPING A MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A
PWAT OF JUST UNDER AN INCH...ABOUT A 5-FOLD INCREASE OVER 48
HOURS...ALONG WITH A SFC-H5 RH OF ABOUT 60 PERCENT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE LOWER TX
COAST...WITH A SFC REFLECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE CNTL TX
COAST. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO OVER THE NWRN GULF STRETCHING FROM OFF GALVESTON BAY DOWN TO
BETWEEN KCRP AND KBRO.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE NEIGHBORHOOD FROM THE SWRN
1/4 OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM ALOFT EJECTS ENEWD
OVER THE NRN GULF. WITH THE SYSTEM IN A WEAKENING STATE HAVE ONLY
CARRIED THE 15/20 POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH KEEPING
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS LACKING ACROSS
THIS PART OF THE GULF COAST. WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EAST OF THE SABINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALBEIT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

MAIN PROBLEM AREA WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AGAIN COMES NEXT WEEK.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON NEXT SIGNIFICANT WX MAKER CROSSING
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK BUT HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THEIR TIMING WITH
THE EUROPEAN NOW BEING SLIGHTLY QUICKER. REGARDLESS NEXT WEEK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY THEN DRIFT
ACROSS TX ON TUESDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED
OVER THE NWRN GULF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LENDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT TO THE RECIPE. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN REALLY PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INSERTED THUNDER FOR SOME SRN PARTS OF THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY
AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NWD INTO MAINLY THE SERN
1/4 OF THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WHILE THE SFC
LOW HELPS FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE
ZONES FOR NOW.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE
SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
ALOFT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE) NRN 1/2. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BEHIND THE PASSING COOL FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  58  75  59  73 /  20  20  20  10  20
KBPT  74  59  74  59  73 /  20  20  10  10  20
KAEX  73  54  74  55  72 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  74  56  75  58  74 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

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