High Wind in Texas, February 13, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MID MORNING DUE TO DENSE FOG. BY LATE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH MOST
OF IT FALLING AS RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
STILL FALLING IN THE SNYDER AREA. AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG
ARE DEVELOPING BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG.
STILL ANTICIPATING THE COLD AIR TO HOLD IN A LITTLE BETTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THOUGH WITH MODEST WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WARMER MAY BE THE BETTER SOLUTION. IT WOULD BE INCREDIBLE TO GO
FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO HIGHS IN THE 60S IN 24 HOURS BUT
THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS PASSED WELL TO THE EAST AND WE CAUGHT
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DROPPING TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS BUT MOST PRECIP SHOULD DEFINITELY REMAIN TO THE EAST.
MODELS ARE GETTING IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WEDNESDAY TROUGH. YESTERDAY PREFERRED A
COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND THAT
IS INDEED WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS ARE
CONSERVATIVE ON QPF AMOUNTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS ON POPS AND
KEPT THEM SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. THE MULTIPLE TROUGHS THE END OF
THE WEEK SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED SOURCE OF COOLER AIR WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT TO WARM BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WINTER WEATHER AT ALL.
GRADUAL WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
323 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012 /223 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH MID MORNING.

A FEW SHOWERS OF LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT RAIN
MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS AND
OVERPASSES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND