Below normal rainfall continued during the month of July across West Tennessee. As a result, severe (D2) drought conditions expanded across all of West Tennessee and extreme (D3) conditions expanded southward across extreme West Tennessee by mid July.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Below normal rainfall continued during the month of July across West Tennessee. As a result, severe (D2) drought conditions expanded across all of West Tennessee and extreme (D3) conditions expanded southward across extreme West Tennessee by mid July. In addition, drought conditions intensified to exceptional (D4) conditions across extreme Northwest Tennessee. Many locations were as much as ten inches below normal in rainfall for the year through the end of July. Many crops that were planted during the spring struggled to grow due to lack of water. Irreversible damage was done to the corn crop while soybean and sorghum fields yield potential continued to dwindle as a result of the dry conditions. Many pastures were in poor condition forcing farmers to feed cattle baled hay. Lake and river levels dropped to low levels. Burn bans were issued for many counties as a result of the dry conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 3:36 AM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 436 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012 .DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECENT TRENDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST BEST COVERAGE WILL BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END FOR A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS. OVERALL...THINK LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A GREATER THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSEQUENTLY DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS SCT SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH ATTM. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUE MORNING WITH MORE SHRAS AND TSRAS FIRING UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRAS TUE AFTN AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT GRADUALLY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SJM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 87 72 87 71 / 70 60 60 50 MKL 86 70 86 69 / 70 60 60 50 JBR 86 71 88 69 / 70 50 50 30 TUP 88 72 86 70 / 70 70 70 60 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 451 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111200- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 451 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OCCASIONALLY AT TIMES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
Moderate (D1) drought conditions became severe (D2) conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 400451, 400452, 400453, 400454, 400455, 400456, 400457, 400458.