Hail in South Dakota, May 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
639 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
ALONG A BAND OF 850 FRONTOGENESIS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER TODAY. THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD CORE LOW
PATTERN DOES RESEMBLE THAT WHICH COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE A COLD AIR
FUNNEL WITH SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. BY 18Z THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW 50S...0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND VGP VALUES NEAR 0.1.

OUT WEST WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE LOW...THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL INDICATES 40+ KTS
AVAILABLE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUSTAINED 30 KT OR GREATER WINDS. AS SUCH...A WINDS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO HIGH 30S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES STILL EXISTS BETWEEN MODELS...AND AS SUCH SO DO THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...KEEPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO
REACH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN LINGERS OVER THE REGION...AND LOOKS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY MIDDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-
     HUGHES-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
506 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-291015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
506 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 /406 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

SDZ007-281300-
MARSHALL-
732 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 731 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HILLHEAD...OR 18 MILES EAST OF BRITTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE ADVISED
COUNTY..

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PARKIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

SDZ007-008-281330-
MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
806 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 806 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VEBLEN...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SISSETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE VEBLEN AND CLAIRE CITY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

WISE