Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 9 to 10, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KABR WONT BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT CONVECTION GIVEN STRONG CAPPING ON KABR 00Z
SOUNDING. SO WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO FORM OUT WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST LATE TNT AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES. I SUPPOSE SOME
SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PARTICULAR CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER LLJ
WILL BE FOCUSED MORE IN THE EAST UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE...AND ITS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE IN THE DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO ALL THAT SAID WILL STICK WITH GOING POPS
AND LOWS FOR NOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
READINGS HAVING REACHED THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE POOLING IS EVIDENT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH LIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AT PIR AND MBG. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ABOUT
3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH OF A CAP LEFT
AT ALL. STILL A BIT OF A CAP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...SOME OF WHICH IS BECOMING A BIT CONGESTED. NO ECHOES
NOTED ON RADAR AS OF THIS WRITING...NOR SEEING ANYTHING ALOFT ON
UPPER ELEVATION CUTS. SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN BEST UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REACHES THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. INTERESTING TO
NOTE A FEW OF THE HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BLOWING UP A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT CUMULUS FIELD RESIDES. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT THIS SOLUTION THOUGH BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO
SEE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS UPPER JET ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE GET
CLOSER.

THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRASTICALLY BY
THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR MONDAY...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPPER TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. NOT MUCH AT ALL FOR CAPE VALUES
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW...AND
WITH THEM COMES THE MODEL INTENSITY AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET SETS UP...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THE REGION THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND GET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BOTH CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE...AND IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH A TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-100915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012 /303 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY. IF A STORM DID MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING WEST RIVER AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS LESS OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY