Hail in South Dakota, July 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
155 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACRS SRN
ALTA...WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
MONSOONAL FLOW LIFTING NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN MT/ERN WY. ALSO...A
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SCNTRL SD ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE CDFNT OVER ERN
MT/ERN WY AS WELL AS THE BLKHLS.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
CWFA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AIDED
BY THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT ALONG WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE) WILL SUPPORT SVR STORMS. HEAVY RAINS ALSO A
THREAT GIVEN SLOW INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON
WITH DECENT CAA. 850MB WINDS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT GIVEN THE HEAT OF LATE.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER NERN WY INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD THIS AFT
AND EVE...WITH IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
453 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-251300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
453 AM MDT (553 AM CDT) TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS
THE SUNDANCE AND NEWCASTLE AREAS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWELL                  44.72N 103.42W
07/23/2012  M75 MPH          BUTTE              SD   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY MEDIA MESONET SITE AT NEWELL SCHOOL.

&&

BUNKERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W SCENIC              43.78N 102.61W
07/23/2012  E60 MPH          PENNINGTON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

POJORLIE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ024-026-028-072-073-242100-
CENTRAL BLACK HILLS SD-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-RAPID CITY SD-SOUTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS SD-
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
CENTRAL PENNINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
MDT...

AT 208 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PIEDMONT...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
RAPID CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY...
  BLACK HAWK...
  ELLSWORTH AFB...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN SOUTH DAKOTA MILE MARKERS 43 AND
63...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4399 10335 4420 10352 4433 10332 4414 10309
      4414 10311 4411 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 318DEG 3KT 4419 10338

POJORLIE