Hail and Damaging Wind in South Carolina, May 17, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM...MESOSCALE MODELS AND AN IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW DOWN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND NE GA HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING. THE NAM HAS A
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX DOWN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTN. THE
NAM ALSO HAS SB-CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OVER A GOOD BIT
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THEREFORE...I/VE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE INCREASING ESE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR
CONVECTION. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS
THE SE TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION ZONE
ENHANCED PCPN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED
WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...TO MATCH A PERIOD OF INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SEEN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE NAM AND THE
HRRR.

AS OF 0650 AM...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE REMAIN OVER
THE FAR S CWA TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
AND CURRENT GRIDDED FIELDS HAVE THIS COVERED. MAINLY TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMP/DP/RH WITH LATEST TRENDS FOR THIS UPDATE.

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
THIS SHOULD STILL PUT THE CWA UNDER WEAK NVA ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAINLY THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL SEE LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT
NEWER NAM RUN INDICATES SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 850MB LOW
SO ISOLD CONVECTION COULD FAN OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS WELL...
MAINLY OUR W AND S SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID
DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY E TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW LVL CIRCULATION WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS AREA DRY. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE DRYER GFS WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MRNG LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...AN INTERESTING PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE
SHORT RANGE. THE PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER
THE SE/RN CONUS WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST
ATOP THE TROF ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THE TROF AXIS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A WEAK BUT
NOTICEABLE CUTOFF LOW. THE TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BY
LATE SUN. FOR THE SENSIBLE CWFA WX HOWEVER...THE LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN NE/LY TO E/LY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AND WEDGES A 1024
MB HIGH DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER STABLE AND
DRY ATMOS OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRI AND SAT. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK  SFC/BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE NC MTNS. THE H85 FLOW BRINGS IN MODEST
AMOUNTS OF ATL MOISTURE TO THE MTNS BY FRI AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON AND MOST
LIKELY LESS COVERAGE AND SAT AFTERNOON. THE MTN TSTMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY WEAK PULSE TYPE. A
GOOD INSOLATION ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...SO MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOL CONDS ARE EXPECTED TOO...SO MINS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXT RANGE. THE
UPPER PATTERN HAS THE DOMINANT NRN RIDGE KEEPING THINGS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH SUN WITH AN ADVANCING MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE EAST EARLY
MON AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES...BEFORE ANOTHER L/W TROF MOVES TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY MON NIGHT AND THUS MAINTAINS A MEAN AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING TROF WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY MOST LIKELY
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA LATE TUE. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND FAIRLY
HIGH TD/S EXPECTED THIS FRONT WILL INSTIGATE A DECENT CHANCE
SHRA/TSTMS MON THROUGH WED. THE GOING GRIDS HAVE THIS SCENARIO WELL
IN HAND WITH THE CHANCE POPS AND WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG FIRST HOUR OR
SO...EXPECT WEAK HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NE TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET ALL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE FOR SLIGHT CHC SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...THIS AFTN. LGT N WINDS WILL VEER NE BY THIS
AFTN...SE KAVL. THERE COULD BE ISOLD G16KT EARLY BUT WINDS SHUD STAY
10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI...ESP MTNS.
THEN DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND. MRNG FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESP MTN
VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-180930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
518 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HAIL             ROEBUCK                 34.88N 81.96W
05/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND SMALL BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     HAIL             2 SE ROEBUCK            34.85N 81.93W
05/17/2012  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON TEMPLETON DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

1208 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ROEBUCK            34.86N 81.94W
05/17/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON TEMPLETON DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

OUTLAW