Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 16, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT
WILL LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD...BUT DID ADD DENSE FOG
FOR THE LITTLE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOW A WEAK H5 TROUGH ORIENTED NE TO SW ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...WHICH HAS HELPED SPAWN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COAST...IS RESULTING IN A RAGGED BAROCLINIC LEAF BACK
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT. THIS HAS CUT DOWN A BIT ON
THE INSOLATION ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN. EVEN SO...ISOLATED SHRA AND
A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE HAS
BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN EXPECTED. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH
NOTHING HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS HAS BEEN CARRIED OWING TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. WHILE THE STORMS SHOULD GO INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO LAST AS LONG AS IT DID
LAST NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS
WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85
WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER...AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 00 UTC.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY...PUTTING THE FA UNDER NVA ALOFT. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT...TURNING THE WINDS OUT OF THE NE AND
BRINGING MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LLVL MOISTURE POOLING DURING THE DAY ON THU...AND
A FEW SHRA/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROF WILL PIVOT SE ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE MTNS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A INVERSION AROUND
H6 ALONG WITH VERY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THE GFS ALSO
INDICATES WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH SHALLOW LAYER OF CIN. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED NE TO SE ACROSS THE CWA.
GIVEN THE RISING MID HEIGHTS...SFC RIDGING...AND WEAKLY CAPPED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY I WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN LESS CAPPED ACROSS THE MTNS AND
RIDGETOP CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL
PAINT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTN RIDGES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES...MINS NEAR 60 WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.

ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGE SE ACROSS
THE CWA...SUPPLYING A STEADY LLVL NE WIND. THE NE FLOW RESULTS IN
LOWER LLVL DEWPOINTS AND OVERALL DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL AND POPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES MAY VERIFY WITHIN A DEGREE
ONE TO TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON WEDNESDAY...A COMPLICATED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT APPEARS
THAT A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
LOW MAY PHASE WITH AN APPROACHING TROF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON
NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST CONSISTENCY I WILL ADVERTISE A
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY COVER FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THEN KEEP CHCS AND ABUNDANT SKY COVER FOR TUES AND
WEDS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SITE AND COULD PROPAGATE
OVER THE AIRFIELD BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO
TSRA FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY THIS EVENING BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS COULD CREATE A SELY WIND.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT LOW VFR AND BKN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIND BECOMING CALM. MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING IF RAIN
DOES FALL THIS EVENING. NELY WIND WILL PICK UP WITH MIXING THU MORN
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND 15Z. EXPECT ENE
WIND WITH SCT CU FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA MOST LIKELY AT KHKY THIS EVENING SO TEMPO INCLUDED
THERE. OTHERWISE...SCT LOW VFR WITH BKN HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WIND. FOG MOST LIKELY AT KAVL OVERNIGHT SO KEPT
IN THE MVFR VSBY. HOWEVER...FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KHKY IF RAIN FALLS.
NELY WIND PICKS UP WITH MIXING THU MORN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND 15Z. EXPECT E TO SE WIND AND SCT CU FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHC FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NC
MTNS...BUT CHC TOO LOW FOR MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI...ESP MTNS.
THEN DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND. MRNG FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESP MTN
VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
310 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ056-068-069-504-170115-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GREATER BURKE-LINCOLN-
831 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND...
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...WESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF ICARD...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HICKORY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VALE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3578 8144 3576 8140 3577 8137 3576 8132
      3543 8137 3550 8169 3578 8155 3578 8146

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
855 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ035-502-170145-
ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-
855 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CALDWELL AND WESTERN
ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 852 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF KINGS CREEK...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BOOMER...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELLENDALE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3603 8127 3603 8121 3581 8122
      3580 8130 3583 8152 3605 8144 3607 8140

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ068-SCZ008-009-170200-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-YORK-
914 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
NORTHWESTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 910 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGS MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF SHELBY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WACO...
  SHELBY...PATTERSON SPRINGS...KINGS MOUNTAIN...GROVER...EARL...KINGS
  MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND BLACKSBURG.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3536 8140 3533 8136 3529 8136 3526 8132
      3516 8133 3516 8131 3504 8132 3509 8162
      3538 8151

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ068-508-170200-
CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
916 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 914 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CASAR...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF MORGANTON...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CASAR...
  POLKVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3556 8165 3557 8160 3556 8158 3557 8154
      3555 8151 3552 8151 3547 8148 3529 8150
      3534 8179 3558 8170

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

SCZ001-002-004-170230-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
943 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE AND WESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

AT 939 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALHALLA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE KEOWEE...
  WALHALLA...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3501 8307 3504 8287 3483 8285 3481 8289
      3478 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8287
      3469 8285 3471 8314

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1003 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ056-069-170245-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
1003 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1001 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF VALE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEWTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VALE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3566 8125 3541 8129 3542 8143 3542 8146
      3552 8151 3555 8151 3556 8152 3562 8150
      3569 8142

ARK