Hail in South Carolina, May 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
ORIENTED NE TO SW ACROSS KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE FA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
THE REGION UNDER WEAK PVA. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND SHRA AND A FEW TSTMS
HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE IN AN AXIS OF WEAK SFC CONVERGECNE ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BNDRY LEFT OVER FROM THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. SPC HAS
TUGGED THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK BACK TO THE WEST AND IT NOW EFFECTIVELY
COVERS THE ENTIRE FA. WITH A LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE
STROMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO
UP ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE BACKED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AN LOW LCL/S.

ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE RISK...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL. CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT CELLS
ARE IGNITING QUICKLY OVER THE MTNS ATTM. THEY ARE ALREADY EXHIBITING
A TENDANCY TO ANCHOR ALONG MTN RIDGES. ADDITIONAL DIRUNAL HEADING
AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND SOME OF THE CELLS
WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. I/M
GENERALLY HAPPY WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS...AND THEN POINTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN
UPSTATE AND MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. CONVECTION SHOULD
TEND TO CONSOLIDATE AND PUSH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WON/T BE WIDESPREAD...MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
WATCH ARE SATURATED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL ONLY TAKE A QUICK TWO
INCHES OF RAIN TO CAUSE STREAMS TO FLOOD. THE WATCH RUNS THROUGH 4
AM. THIS SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE NC MTNS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
WANTS TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND NE UPSTATE OF
SC MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SAME THING HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AND I
WOULDN/T BE SURPISED TO SEE THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA SEE SOME OF
IT/S HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE H5 WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. THE UPSTATE AND NE
GA WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE. I HAVE 40 POPS IN THIS AREA FOR
NOW...BUT IT WOULDN/T SURPRISE ME TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE THAN THIS
ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...ON THURSDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SFC...A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK H6 INVERSION...WITH SHALLOW DEEP LAYER
LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND A SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS RIDGES AND SCHC EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

ON FRIDAY...THE H5 TROF AXIS SHOULD TRACK SE AND HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE
ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN NE LLVL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS...KEEPING CAPE VALUES LESS THAN THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
PATTERN...I WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO A SCHC ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON HPC DISCUSSION...I WILL FAVOR THE
0Z ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD H5 RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLOSED LOW
MAY CUT OFF OVER FL ON MON AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED NE TO SE
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BASED ON THIS
PATTERN...I WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING SCHC TO CHC POPS MON AND TUES
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE A WAYS TO THE SW
OF THE AIRFIELD. SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO THE VCNTY OF THE AIRFIELD BY
19 UTC...WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER TSTMS FROM 20 TO 24 UTC AS THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. I/VE PUT IN
A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP FOR THIS PERIOD. THE CONVECTION MAY GO QUITE A
BIT FARTHER INTO THE EVENING THAN THIS...THOUGH IT/S TOO UNCERTAIN
TO ADD ANY THUNDER BEYOND 00 UTC. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW I/VE GONE WITH BKN020. WINDS WILL BE SW THROUGH
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT OUT OF THE NE WED AFTER SUNRISE.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
STORMS WILL MISS KGSP AND KGMU TO THE SOUTH...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED
EVERYWHERE...STARTING FIRST AT KAVL...AND A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND AT KHKY. LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS
AFTN...AND I/VE GENERALLY SHIED AWAY FROM CARRYING ANYTHING
RESTRICTIVE OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK.
MRNG FOG PSBL...ESPLY MTN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ002-003-005>009.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1124 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>009-161530-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
1124 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-004-
010>014-019-161530-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1124 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE HENDERSONVILLE    35.31N 82.43W
05/14/2012                   HENDERSON          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BAT FORK CREEK FLOODED A PORTION OF AIRPORT RD.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE NEWTON            35.73N 81.19W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LYLE CREEK COVERED A PORTION OF ST JOHNS CHURCH RD.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE CLAREMONT         35.75N 81.13W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED CROSSING CREEK ROAD TO
            A DEPTH OF 18 INCHES.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW CLAREMONT         35.76N 81.17W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED PORTIONS OF COMMUNITY
            AND RIVERBEND ROADS.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MONROE            35.00N 80.60W
05/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       UNION              NC   COCORAHS

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED WNW OF MONROE.

&&

JPT