Hail in South Carolina, March 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE EAST OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...A DEEP SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL OK...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACRS THE TN VLY THRU THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
CWFA. A MARKED CONTRAST OF AIR MASSES ALONG THE BNDRY...ESPECIALLY
WRT DEWPTS. DEWPTS RUNNING IN THE 30S N OF THE FRONT AND LWR 60S S
OF IT. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ABOUT A 1000 J/KG OF CAPE S
OF THE FRONT...AND THIS IS PLENTY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE. A BROKEN
LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SW ACRS THE CWFA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ACTUALLY PLENTY OF SHEAR
(EFFECTED LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS). SO SOME STORM ROTATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY HAIL) EXISTS.

LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN...THE FCST QUICKLY BECOMES
CHALLENGING...AS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING MORE WEDGY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH PERSISTENT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300 K
SFCS KEEPING FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE EAST COAST IS QUITE WEAK (1020 MB)...BUT MAY BE ENUF TO HOLD
AN IN SITU WEDGE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS BY LATE AFTN. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE 00Z NAM TEMPS/DEWPTS FOR HOURLY GRIDS...KEEPS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND BLUE RIDGE IN WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING THRU THE AFTN...WITH FAIRLY
WARM CONDITION SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE OH/TN VLYS. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED
TO REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO A SVR WX OUTBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
CONVECTION TRACKING INTO THE CWFA THIS EVENING...AND ACRS THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.  INSTBY WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSSIBLY SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS/WEDGE INVOF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STILL...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING WITH THE FRONT COUPLED
WITH UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. CATEGORICAL POPS/THUNDER STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...AS WELL AS THE BUFKIT
CONRAD...INDICATE THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SUPERCELLS.
THE SVR WX THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE H5
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W SAT WITH THE ASSOC SFC COLD
FRONT MOVG THRU IN THE MRNG. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRACKS SE OF
THE AREA DURG THE AFTN. TEMPS START OFF WELL ABOVE AVG AT 12Z BUT
FALLING THKNS AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING VERY MUCH DURG THE DAY AND THEY WILL LIKELY START TO DROP
OFF BY MID AFTN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT BUT PATCHY MOISTURE
IN NW FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE MTNS FROM THE NW SUN MRNG WITH
BETTER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE AROUND AVG BUT COOL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RAIN SHWRS WILL MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMS WILL BE OVER THE NC MTNS ALONG
THE TN BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF OCNL LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW MOISTURE LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR PSBL ADVSRY
SNOWFALL...ESP AT HIGHER ELEVS ALONG THE TN BORDER SUN NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEG BELOW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WIND.  BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE ROUGHLY OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY IS NOT AS MOISTURE LADEN AS PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
JUST SOME CLOUDINESS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE PART OF
THE FORECAST FROM 00Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY IS MORE OF A CONTRAST
AT LEAST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HPC IS GOING WITH THE GFS IN
MAINTAINING THE HIGH LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND TAKES A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT SPREADING A LONG SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST...ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

THE NEW ECMWF JUST CAME IN AND IT ABOUT A MID POINT COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE OLD ECMWF AND THE CURRENT GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
TAFS...AS TRENDS IN MOIST LIFT ACRS AL/GA HAVE ONLY JUST BEGUN...AND
THE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE
PESSIMISTIC...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCORDINGLY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM WRN
TN/NRN AL THRU CENTRAL GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY LOWER TO IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE (IE... KAND/KGMU/KGSP/KHKY). WENT WITH 1000 FT CIGS FOR
NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME TS/CB WITH THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO PUT CB AT KAND. LATER TODAY...PROBABLY A
LULL IN SHRA/TSRA WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE STRATUS WILL
ERODE. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST.  WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THRU MID MORNING...THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW...WITH SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLOUDS ERODE AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
SAT NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
516 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-020915-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-HART-
340 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ABBEVILLE...NORTHERN
ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN HART AND SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415
AM EST...

AT 336 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF NUBERG...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  IVA...
  SECESSION LAKE...
  ANTREVILLE...
  DUE WEST...

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3449 8243 3428 8235 3416 8288 3434 8295

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SCZ012-021030-
LAURENS-
454 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY THROUGH
530 AM EST...

AT 452 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF WATERLOO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAURENS...
  CLINTON...
  JOANNA...

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3434 8216 3450 8218 3456 8174 3455 8173
      3456 8168 3453 8164 3446 8169 3442 8174
      3436 8178 3434 8181 3432 8213

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SCZ012>014-021100-
CHESTER-LAURENS-UNION-
526 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN UNION
AND WESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM EST...

AT 524 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF SEDALIA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF UNION...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANTUC...
  CARLISLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3442 8179 3459 8181 3479 8128 3456 8121
      3456 8141 3449 8142 3449 8148 3446 8152
      3445 8156 3447 8156 3452 8164 3442 8173

RB