Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE... KEEPING TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...MAIN MOVE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WAS TO EDGE
THE POPS UP ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) WHERE SURFACE
BASED CAPE AND DCAPE WAS MAXIMIZED...AND EDGE DOWN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EARLIER REASONING OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

AT 1420 EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST TROUGH PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY... WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ON THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN SPREADING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED FIRING ALONG AND OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR OUT PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND SOME
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE... WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS RESULTING.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN A MOIST AIR MASS...AND PERHAPS
TO THE EAST WHERE RAIN FALLS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. MORE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE ON
SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT CAPE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING NNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
EVENING...SO A CHANCE POP WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS SAFELY TO THE SOUTH. THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE IS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. TEMPS
WILL ALSO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ELECTED NOT TO LOWER THEM
ANY MORE EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WILD
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO DEBBY WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE FORECASTERS FITS ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE AFFECT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED
TO CIRRUS OUTFLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...AN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE MEDIUM
RANGE BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY WITH FORECASTING THE FATE OF
DEBBY...EVEN THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL REMAIN INSULATED FROM ANY AFFECTS FROM THE STORM. WE ARE STILL
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE DRY AS WE MAINTAIN A NNW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
SOME SORT OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT LEAST
THAT IS OUR BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW. EVEN IF THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANT OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 12Z
FRIDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGE BETWEEN IT AND THE
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...BASICALLY OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CAROLINAS.
SO...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED E TO W WELL
TO OUR N FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND THUS WE WOULD REMAIN S OF THE MCS
TRACK. THUS...OUR BEST BET IS A RETURN TO CLIMO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH TEMPS COMING DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COUPLE BOUTS OF CONVECTION WHICH WENT NEAR / OR OVER /
PARTS OF THE THE AIRFIELD. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE IN A LULL...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPROACHING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA (AND
MOVING NORTH) MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPEMENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD
KNOCK THINGS DOWN OR END. WE ARE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
REASONING IN KEEPING NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TIME
WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S TONIGHT...AND SW BY DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SC. KAVL WILL FEATURE LOW END MVFR FOG BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT IT COULD BE MUCH LOWER...AS
IT WAS THE LAST TWO MORNINGS. KHKY HAS MORE SUPPORT FOR MVFR VSBY
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITHOUT A RECENT HISTORY OF FOG...WILL
WAIT TO SE IF RAIN FALLS THERE. MORE CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE A FRONT
ON MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA. MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/STUREY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/STUREY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL OF PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE...AS WELL AS
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ069>072-242215-
CABARRUS-GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GASTON...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOWESVILLE TO 4
MILES WEST OF CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...
  HARRISBURG...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3549 8110 3541 8063 3522 8052 3530 8099

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ504-506-242230-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEBO...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3582 8181 3564 8158 3559 8191 3573 8200
      3579 8190

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ006-242230-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
547 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...
  SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...
  HAYWOOD MALL...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3471 8235 3487 8246 3495 8224 3491 8222
      3486 8223 3484 8220 3479 8218

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ009-242315-
YORK-
618 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YORK COUNTY THROUGH 715
PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF YORK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3489 8117 3505 8134 3509 8117 3498 8105

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ068-070-242300-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
619 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLEVELAND AND
NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WACO...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHERRYVILLE...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3524 8120 3522 8145 3541 8157 3541 8139

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ005-006-010-242330-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-
639 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85...OR 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  POWDERSVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3469 8252 3486 8257 3488 8240 3478 8232

KRENTZ