Hail and Damaging Wind in South Carolina, July 4, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VARYING
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS EXPECTED...AND ALONG A
LEE TROUGH/CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND...AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DROP TOWARD THE REGION...SO WE CONTINUE TO FEEL GOOD
ABOUT THE 40-50 POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE...WE/RE NOT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS
THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER ALONG
COLD POOLS...AND THIS WOULD POSE A HIGHER DOWNBURST THREAT.

CONSIDERING THE EARLY START TO CONVECTION...AND THAT THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS RETURN TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DROP TOWARD
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS HINT AT THIS OCCURRENCE...I DONT PUT A GREAT DEAL OF FAITH IN
IT...AS SHEAR IS AWFULLY WEAK EVEN THAT FAR UPSTREAM.
NEVERTHELESS... WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AT THE START OF THE SECOND PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES VERY WEAK AND TEMPS WARM A LITTLE ALOFT. MODEL CAPE VALUES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL QUITE UNSTABLE...BUT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE GFS GENERATE ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WE WILL NEVERTHELESS FEATURE CHANCE POPS IN ALL
AREAS TOMORROW...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE EAST
FROM THE SPRAWLING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN MCS MAKING A RUN SE FROM THE OH VALLEY FRI
MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED FRI AFTN/EVENING PERIOD. SCT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MTNS EARLY FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER ON IN NRLY STEERING FLOW AND WITH LOW LEVEL
LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. THE NAM FEATURES SOME 4000 TO 5000 J/KG SFC
BASED CAPES FRI AFTN...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE NAM
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE LACKLUSTER GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...SLIGHT MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE MICROBURST THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT FRI AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE GRADUALLY FLATTENING RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH DRYING IN THE PROFILES FROM THE NE...THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY GET SHUNTED SW TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SAT
AFTN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO FRI AFTN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE EXT
RANGE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE LATEST GEFS ENS ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE SPREAD AROUND THE H5 Z MEAN. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS AN EAST COAST TROF FORMS IN
RESPONSE TO -NAO BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO BE REINFORCED AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BTW THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT
ONLY ABOUT 6-8 HRS BY MON NIGHT. SO...DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN
INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHEN THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES OR NRN MIDLANDS. STILL
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...BUT AT THE HIGH END MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE LLVL LIFT AND DEEPER
SHEAR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS...THUS CONTINUED BOUTS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL
BEGIN THE PERIOD A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN...THEN LOWER A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR MON AND TUE AS THE BOUNDARY HELPS INDUCES A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AND A TEMPO FOR TS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KCLT BY 20Z...WITH VCTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS N OR NW AT KCLT FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT A TURN TO THE W
AND SW IS POSSIBLE AS THE POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH FLUCTUATES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 5TH 96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH 93 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 5TH 98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH 100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 5TH 100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 99 IN 1930

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
256 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ050-042130-
MITCHELL-
443 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNICOI...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ERWIN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BULADEAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3615 8218 3615 8215 3612 8213 3611 8208
      3609 8208 3600 8226 3604 8230 3603 8231
      3603 8234 3607 8234 3608 8237 3610 8239
      3614 8230 3614 8225 3617 8220

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ049-050-042145-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
507 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL AND NORTHERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LIMESTONE COVE TO 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMBREEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  RAMSEYTOWN...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3615 8218 3615 8215 3611 8212 3611 8208
      3597 8205 3590 8247 3591 8249 3593 8250
      3595 8248 3598 8251 3610 8239 3614 8230
      3614 8225 3617 8220

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ070-042200-
GASTON-
508 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GASTON COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DALLAS...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GASTONIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DALLAS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3541 8114 3526 8111 3526 8122 3538 8131

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

SCZ008-042200-
CHEROKEE-
516 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THICKETTY...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAFFNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3491 8168 3491 8170 3492 8173 3495 8175
      3503 8179 3506 8165 3493 8157 3491 8163
      3490 8168

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ035-036-501-502-042200-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-IREDELL-
519 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...EASTERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WILKES COUNTY AIRPORT TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF ELKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS CREEK...
  ELLENDALE...

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3608 8142 3600 8132 3603 8127 3604 8121
      3603 8108 3607 8098 3606 8078 3605 8078
      3582 8126 3604 8156 3609 8145

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ069-042200-
LINCOLN-
521 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF IRON STATION...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DENVER...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3542 8099 3543 8108 3555 8118 3556 8118
      3554 8098

MCAVOY