Damaging Winds in Pennsylvania, July 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
104 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON THE WEEKEND AND TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVE THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH 90 DEGREES MOST AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AT THE EAST END OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHEAR
IS THE BEST.

.PREVIOUS...HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND WILL HELP TO FEED
CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

SOME CONCERN THAT ADDED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN
IN SOME PLACES. SINCE HEAT ADVISORY ALREADY OUT WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW SINCE POTENTIAL IS THERE IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE HOW MORNING CONVECTION
PLAYS OUT TO DECIDE ON MERITS OF WHERE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY.

WITH PW'S IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE AND STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SPOTTY FLOODING PROBLEMS WHERE RUNOFF QUICKLY OCCURS. HOWEVER...DUE
TO OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS LEADING INTO THE EVENT AND RANDOM NATURE
OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN FOR MOST PLACES BY MIDNIGHT AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER SOON THEREAFTER. WIND SHIFT AND
RAIN COOLED AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS BUT ONLY AS LOW
AS THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY AND INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL PULL A
SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DESTABILIZATION FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRI SO
ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE.

UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE
PRECIP FOR SAT. TROUGH AXIS BY 18Z SHOULD BE INTO PA SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE ONLY IN THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY END ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FINALLY DROP TO FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH LOWS
MOSTLY 60 TO 65.

WILL STAY WITH PLAN TO KEEP NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WEST OF AREA
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD CHANGE THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IN A "RING OF FIRE" SCENARIO.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR PASSING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  TEMPS LOOK TO BE
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF OUR
TAF ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY.

I STILL KEPT THE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z IN THE TAFS BUT
IT COULD GO LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR A FEW SITES.

OUR FORECAST MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND MVFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOSTLY EAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY.  ALSO HAVE MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENT.  IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS WILL CROSS THE LAKE BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING WITH
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SMALL CHANCE EAST SATURDAY...THEN DRY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-270815-
GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ002-003-270815-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OHZ003-006-008>012-089-270815-
LUCAS-WOOD-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ001-270815-
NORTHERN ERIE-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-270815-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OHZ007-270815-
OTTAWA-
402 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.