A long period of heavy rain led to flooding on the South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A long period of heavy rain led to flooding on the South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 20, 8:21 AM PST, 5 hours 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
821 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FRONT LYING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM JUST EAST OF BROOKINGS NORTHEAST
THROUGH ROSEBURG. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE 24 HOUR AMOUNTS HAVE TOPPED 8 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PLACES...BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST...AND HIGH WATER IN THE COQUILLE
RIVER REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...BUT SHOULD TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES ENTERING THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING THURSDAY...AND
ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN...BECOMING
LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS AND STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TUESDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND TURBULENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE VERY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN STALLED ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST IS FINALLY MAKING A DEFINITIVE PUSH INLAND. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT REACHED 0.99" IN ONE HOUR AT ONE POINT IN
BROOKINGS IN THE LAST TWO HOURS AND OVER A HALF INCH AN HOUR IN
BROOKINGS IN JUST 10 MINUTES LAST EVENING HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TODAY, WITH
EFFECTS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS HAVE BEEN NEARLY 5 INCHES IN BROOKINGS, 6.74 INCHES AT RED
MOUND, AND 8.20 INCHES AT QUAIL PRAIRIE LOOKOUT. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND AT HIGHER ELEVATION WINDY SPOTS REACHED OR EXCEEDED
HURRICANE FORCE WITH 103 MPH RECORDED ON SQUAW PEAK IN THE
SISKIYOUS. UNDOUBTEDLY WIND AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MANY
OTHER AREAS HAVE ALSO BEEN AT LEAST AS EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WHEN
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT HAS BEEN ABSENT WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS SNOWFALL LOW ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER STATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY BE FALLING WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET, THE AIR TEMPERATURE EVEN AT
THE RADAR ON MOUNT ASHLAND HAS RISEN FROM 32F TO 34 IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. CAMERAS FROM THE CRATER LAKE AND MOUNT ASHLAND WILL BE
MORE REVEALING ABOUT WHAT'S REALLY OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
ONCE THE SUN RISES.
OF GREATEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS RAIN RATES AND TOTALS ALONG
AND NEAR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST. OVERNIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED THE FRONT AND ACTUALLY CAUSED IT TO
WAVE BACK WEST A BIT ALONG THE CURRY COAST. THE CHETCO RIVER IS
NOW NEARING 22 FEET, ALREADY A FEW FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS WE
NEAR THE 509 AM HIGH TIDE. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT
ROUGHLY 24 FEET AROUND 4PM LOCAL TIME, WHICH IS 41 MINUTES BEFORE
THE DAY'S SECOND HIGH TIDE. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN RATES
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN CURRY COUNTY THE WATER
FLOWING OUT OF THE SURROUNDING AREA AND INTO THE CHETCO ALONG WITH
HIGH TIDE YIELDS CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING IN THE BROOKINGS AREA.
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
ALREADY IN BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE RIVER CREST LEVEL ON THE CHETCO IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET ABOVE
LAST YEAR'S CREST AND THE THIRD OR FOURTH GREATEST IN THE
HISTORICAL RECORD SINCE 1970 BEGAN.
THE SOUTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE AS WELL AS THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE
OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE
WARNINGS. MANY OTHER PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AND
FLOODING...AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE THIS MORNING, PUSHING
RAINFALL INLAND ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND CASCADES THROUGH THE
MORNING.N THIS AFTERNOON SOME RAIN WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE. A
COLDER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AND YIELDING A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BTL
AVIATION...
..BASED ON 20/12Z TAFS...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN...BECOMING
LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS AND STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TUESDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM PST MON NOV 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THE FRONT MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING
IS WELL DEFINED BY THE LINE OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM POINT ST GEORGE. WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT OF .56
INCHES IN TEN MINUTES AS THIS FEATURE MOVED THROUGH THE BROOKINGS
AREA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WIND WARNINGS ON THE WEST SIDE...AS WELL AS LOWERING THE STORM
WARNINGS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY CAPTURES
THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
REACHING THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTLINE...AND STRONG WINDS ARE
AFFECTING AREAS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
OREGON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND THE
COASTLINE. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTHERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON COAST. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BRINGING THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
AND AREAS JUST INLAND. BELOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAIN
IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM...THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WIND ISSUES...THE WELL ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS AND REPORTS OF DAMAGE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED, INCLUDING TREES AND WIRES DOWN AND BLOCKING ROADS
ALONG THE COAST, TREES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOME MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN OTHER AREAS. MANY OF THE LOWER VALLEYS ON THE
WEST SIDE ARE EVEN GETTING IN ON IT WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING
ABOVE 40 MPH IN MEDFORD PROPER, FOR EXAMPLE. THE ONLY SPOTS NOT
SEEING MUCH WIND ARE A HIGHLY SHELTERED VALLEYS OF WESTERN OREGON
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THE FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST AND WINDS AND JUST HOWLING
OVER COAST AND THE WATERS. WE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WIND WARNING
OVER THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY, AND ALTHOUGH WE DON'T HAVE ANY BUOYS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, IT IS VERY LIKELY HAPPENING JUDGING
FROM OTHER DATA. THIS WILL BE IMPACTING THE INNER WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COASTAL JET TIGHTENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE DON'T EXPECT THIS SORT OF WIND FURTHER
INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND.
THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST
SIDE, AND THUS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE EAST SIDE INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW WINDS DECREASING BELOW WARNING AND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING. -WRIGHT
RAINFALL...IMPRESSIVE 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST TO WASHINGTON. 2 INCHES IN 6 HOURS
HAS NOT BEEN UNCOMMON. THESE HIGH RAIN RATES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS
WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. CURRY
COUNTY WILL GET HIT THE HARDEST GIVEN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL THERE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...FLOODING OF RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IS LIKELY IN CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING AT
FLWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS. THOSE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN COOS COUNTY AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY NEED TO STAY ALERT
FOR RISING WATER OVERNIGHT. NOTE THAT TIDAL AREAS ALONG THE CHETCO
RIVER WILL BE MOST AFFECTED DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING NEAR 5AM PST AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR 5PM.
ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE
AT MYRTLE POINT HAS BEEN ISSUED...WITH FLOODING POTENTIALLY
LASTING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AN AREAL FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR COOS COUNTY AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE
LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SMALL STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING
THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000
FEET. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A
MORE DEFINED FEATURE IN TODAYS MODELS THAN PREVIOUS...WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE BUSY HOLIDAY
TRAVEL DAY THAT IS WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST REFLECTS SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO 4000 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH SHOWERS
STILL IN THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND HWY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD. THAT COULD ALSO SPELL VALLEY FOG GIVEN STABILITY AND
RECENT PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY...BUT OF THE
LIGHT VARIETY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS SNOW LEVELS BACK TO 5000 FEET OR LOWER...BUT
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. DANGEROUSLY STEEP SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FT ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN, THEY WON'T COMPLETELY
DIMINISH. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-023.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ027-028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
99/99/99PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1011 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0918 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N KENO 42.20N 121.92W
11/20/2012 M79 MPH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1032 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 WSW WINCHESTER 43.26N 123.48W
11/20/2012 M3.84 INCH DOUGLAS OR PUBLIC
24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM PST HEAVY RAIN
DURATION 24 HOURS
&&
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1034 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0913 AM HEAVY RAIN ASHLAND 42.19N 122.70W
11/20/2012 M1.13 INCH JACKSON OR PUBLIC
AMOUNT IS SINCE MIDNIGHT PST. ALSO HEARD
THUNDER AROUND 9 AM.
&&
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1113 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1110 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W MERLIN 42.52N 123.50W
11/20/2012 M4.10 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN AMOUNT IS SINCE 3 PM PST. SPOTTER
REPORTS STORM TOTAL OF 4.70 INCHES. HEAVY
RAIN DURATION 20 HOURS
&&
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1128 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW MEDFORD 42.31N 122.90W
11/20/2012 M1.55 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 11 AM
PST.
&&
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1255 PM PST TUE NOV 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1253 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ROSEBURG 43.23N 123.36W
11/20/2012 M3.68 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
1253 PM HEAVY RAIN 11 NNW MEDFORD 42.48N 122.95W
11/20/2012 M2.06 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR RAINFALL
&&
SPILDEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point exceeded minor flood stage (33.0 feet) at 20/1400 PST, exceeded moderate flood stage (35.0 feet) at 20/1645 PST, fell below 35.0 feet at 20/2000 PST, and fell below 33.0 feet at 21/0345 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 418429.