Hail in Oklahoma, February 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44 BUT ARE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SO THE CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA CLOSEST TO THE TRUE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT IN MOST PLACES BUT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-032300-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
449 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE
WEST. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN CAPABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAYBE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.