Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, September 6 to 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAKE BREEZE AND
WEAK DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST EXISTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STRONG STORMS CAN
DEVELOP THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH SOME MIDDLE
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING THREAT FOR EVENING CONVECTION PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THEN
AIRMASS SETTLES DOWN DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR DRIFTING SE INTO THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE AREA
FOR SAT. A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA STARTING LATER
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD SHIFT INTO JUST
THE EAST BY SAT MORNING.

COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR SHRA IN THE
SNOWBELT LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A LITTLE THUNDER COULD OCCUR WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SHRA THREAT LIMITED TO MOSTLY JUST THE EAST.

A LINGERING SHRA OR TWO COULD HANG AROUND OVER THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AS DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE CONTROL.

NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE FOR SAT AND CONTINUE SUN WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. LOWS BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN A 50
TO 55 RANGE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. DRY FOR THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH ON MONDAY THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C THE FLOW WILL BE SO WEAK
THAT JUST SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AND NO SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME THAT MAY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER NW OH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TS FROM MFD-CAK-YNG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING ERI-CLE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THOSE
LOCATIONS. SOME INSTABILITY MOVING INTO NW OH BUT CONCERNED THERE
MAY BE LACK OF TRIGGER TO GET WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS GOING. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECTING IF ANYTHING
DOES DEVELOP IT WILL DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z FRI.

GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CONDITIONS THINKING THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS SELECTED SITES. MAINLY VFR AFTER 13Z FRI WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRI. KEPT CLE DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT
BUT CONFIDENCE MARGINAL GIVEN SOME MODELS BRINGING THE CHC OF
SHRA/TS NEAR CLE TOWARD 00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LAKE COULD BE STRONG LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE INTERESTING ON THE LAKE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW FOR THE WHOLE WEEKEND. THE WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE AROUND 15C FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SOME COLD AIR WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNELS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AND THEN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
507 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-070915-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
507 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-070915-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
507 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.