Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, September 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MARBLE HILL...JACKSON SHOULD
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS OF 19Z THURSDAY DURING THE MIDDLE/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISTURB THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE MCS...BUT ENHANCE POCKETS OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF IT. I
AM CONCERNED THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOWING MCS STRUCTURE MAY
DIVE MOVE SOUTH TOWARD BUTLER COUNTY...LIMITING EASTWARD MOVEMENT
BEYOND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH SUNSET. LAPS DATA INDICATE
BETTER CAPE AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE ACROSS THAT AREA. THE 3KM
HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MCS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FIELD WAS UTILIZED IN DEVELOP POP/WEATHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN COLLABORATION WITH THE NWS
OFFICES IN SPRINGFIELD AND SAINT LOUIS MO.

ONCE THIS MCS DECAYS AND DIES OUT THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
INITIALIZATION OF THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE MODELS HAS SHOWN THAT THE
CLOSED CYCLONIC VORTEX THAT WAS ADVERTISED OVER THE ONTARIO
CANADIAN PROVINCE...WAS ACTUALLY SHOWING UP FURTHER WEST IN THE
MANITOBA CANADIAN PROVINCE. THE NET EFFECT FOR THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA IS THAT THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL...WITH FAIRLY
GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. GOES SOUNDER DATA ALREADY SHOW
LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.6 TO 2.0 INCHES...ALREADY
NEARLY 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE IS DEEPER PLUME OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLAN TO EMPHASIZE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME 1O TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...A WELCOME
RELIEF TO THE RECORD SETTING SUMMER HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EACH DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE MODELS DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD
THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY 7 PERIOD. SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LONG RANGE
MODEL FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

FOR THE 18Z THURSDAY TAF ISSUANCE...KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT OR BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN AND AROUND EACH OF THE WFO
PAH TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE KCGI TAF. GIVEN THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BARELY TOUCHING THIS TAF SITE...ADDED A
MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT ALL TAF SITES IN VFR CATEGORY IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ATTEMPTED TO TRANSITION THE KEVV/KOWB TAF
SITES FROM THE LINGERING CLOUD DECK FROM THE MORNING FOG TO VFR
CLOUDS. SINCE KEVV WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITHIN THE LAST THREE HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....CTN
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
343 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WEST OF A LINE FROM INA AND
EDDYVILLE ILLINOIS...ONWARD TO PADUCAH KENTUCKY AND DORENA
MISSOURI. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH SMALL HAIL TO
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SECONDARY HAZARDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AROUND 11 AM
CDT...TO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON...AROUND 4 PM CDT...OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE WILL SPAN
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM CDT FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE STORMS SUPPORTS STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
STRENGTH AND BECOMING ELEVATED IN NATURE.

DURING THE EARLY EVENING...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. REPORTS OF HAIL...GUSTY AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE APPRECIATED.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1110 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINGO                   36.64N 88.74W
09/05/2012                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            THE WIND TORE APART A KIDS SWING SET AND THEN PICKED IT
            UP AND CARRIED IT INTO BEAN FIELD ACROSS THE ROAD. TIME
            APPROXIMATED.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1112 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             BOUNDURANT              36.52N 89.32W
09/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       FULTON             KY   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED IN BROWNSVILLE. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

CW