Hail in North Dakota, June 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHARP RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH MID LEVEL LOW EDGING
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE RIDGE. SURFACE LOW FROM LEE OF CANADIAN
ROCKIES TO BLACK HILLS EDGING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A LINE FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER SOUTH
TO KABR AND ANOTHER LINE EAST OF KRAP. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TRIGGER THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND MORE CLOUDS LIMIT
HEATING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM ARE CENTERED UPON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL
DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ON FRIDAY...LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...WITH A WARM FRONT PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...PERHAPS ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA....AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NEAR
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30+ KTS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARCHING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...YIELDING ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIALLY HIGH END SEVERE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
REMAIN DELAYED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SOME ELEVATED
STORMS MAY REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THE LOW THEN PROPAGATES INTO ONTARIO BY TUESDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 1900 UTC...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
KJMS BETWEEN 19 AND 21 UTC. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KDIK.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 21 UTC. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DO BELIEVE THAT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
END AND HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST LONGER THROUGH NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER 12 UTC ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HW
LONG TERM....AYD
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-071930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
217 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 /117 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.