Drought in North Dakota, July 10 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES WITH THERMAL FIELDS. THE NAM SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
WITH THE GFS TOO COOL...SO A COMPROMISE SHOULD WORK WELL WITH
TEMPS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO CENTRAL/NE ND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...BUT FORCING REMAINS WEAK. THERE HAS BEEN A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THIS SHEAR AXIS
THOUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FIRING
ATTM BETWEEN BIS/JMS. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LOWER POPS INTO THE WEST
THIS MORNING PERHAPS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS ABOUT
3-4C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK LLJ OF ABOUT 20KT AND 850MB CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WITH
A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS.

ON WED...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND BY AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTH AND
WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH INCREASING 925MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +30C. THE NAM SFC TEMPS ARE INTO THE MID 90S IN
THE SOUTH...BUT WON/T GO THIS WARM BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A HOT DAY. PROJECTED HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE INTO THE MID 90S FOR
MOST AREAS...SO IF DEWPOINTS RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED...OR TEMPS ARE
A BIT WARMER...THEN WE COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR THU...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND
EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. MLCAPES
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY THU EVENING. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXIST NEAR ANY STORMS. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
PRECLUDE TOO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND SOME KIND OF SFC BOUNDARY. SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
GROUND FOR MOST AREAS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ISSUES BUT ALWAYS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS
INCLUDED A 5% SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH ABOVE THINKING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY...
DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING
SHORT-WAVE ROTATES AROUND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
MONSOONAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CRASHES ONSHORE...BUT EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT WILL
INTRODUCE 20-30 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANY WEAK WAVE ALOFT
MAY PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST/NORTH TODAY...
BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION AT ANY SITE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/ROGERS