Hail in North Carolina, October 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR...AS PESKY MESO-LOW PERSISTS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE MID-MISS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN HAD PUSHED INTO EAST TENN WITHIN A BAND OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
BEST FORCING WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAKES
SENSE BASED UPON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
NEVERTHELESS...DECENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR (MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 AND
OVER THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...AND AT LEAST LIKELY POPS WILL BE
CARRIED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...POPS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

BY AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD
THE WEST AND NW...AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL ACT TO SHUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A BRIEF NW FLOW
MAY INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO YIELD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS QUITE COMPLEX...SINCE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW SOON THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
ON MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH. MUCH WILL ALSO HINGE UPON HOW MUCH/
WHERE PRECIP FALLS TODAY. IN LIGHT OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL POSITION
EXPECTATIONS TODAY...WE WILL FEATURE ABOUT A 15 DEGREE RANGE FROM
NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND
ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES...SO ALTHOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...NO FROST CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 505 AM...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO TIME THE UPGLIDE-
FORCED RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE MTNS. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT (ROUGHLY
PARALLELING THE I-85 CORRIDOR)...SO POPS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP A BIT
THERE AS WELL.

AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON MONDAY
WITH A WEAK COLD AIR WEDGE SETTING UP BRIEFLY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH MOVING WEST OT EAST FROM KENTUCKY TO THE VIRGINIAS AND AT THE
MID LEVELS A SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.  THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN MID DAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS MONDAY WHICH WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS.
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MILDER LOWS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  WE NOW HAVE FAR FEWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES. THIS GREATLY REDUCES THE AREA AFFECTED BY FROST AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AS THE LARGER CLOUD SHIELD MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE ONLY ABOUT 2
CATEGORIES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PICKS UP AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THE STRONG SHORTWAVE LONG ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.  STILL EXPECT ONLY WEAK
AFFECTS FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY CARRYING LOW
END SLIGHT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT
WEEKEND...A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY BRING UPSLOPE RAIN FOR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL
CONSIDER THAT IN LATER RUNS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THERE ARE SOME IFR CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...KCLT JUST PICKED UP A SCT LAYER AT 008 AT 135Z.
THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MECHANISM THAT WAS FORCING LAST EVENINGS
SHOWERS. AS SUCH...I DONT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO FILL IN...AS THE
COOL/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...A BRIEF IFR CIG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SET UP NORTH AND WEST OF KCLT LATER THIS
MORNING...KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN AND LOWER CIGS AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING COOLING
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF FOG ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING IN RESPONSE TO
WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT KAVL BY
09Z OR SO...WHILE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT KHKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING -RA TO THE KAVL AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
AND TO KHKY BY AROUND SUNRISE. -RA CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE...
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THEY SHUD LIFT TUE AS FAIR WEATHER RETURNS AND CONTINUES
WED.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-081015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
615 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAIN...MAINLY AT AND NEAR RIDGE TOPS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PATCHY FROST. IF SKIES CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WIND...THAT WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FROST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-081015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
615 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

DEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-071200-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
716 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YORK...NORTHERN
UNION AND SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM EDT...

AT 714 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF TEGA CAY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TEGA CAY...
  CAROWINDS...
  PINEVILLE...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...
  STALLINGS...
  MINT HILL...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3502 8031 3498 8083 3505 8089 3501 8090
      3498 8088 3495 8123 3512 8123 3523 8058
      3517 8046 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8033

LANE