North Carolina, 2012

Flash Flood and Hail in North Carolina, May 21, 2012

May 21, 2012 · NWS GSP · 4 events in 2 counties and zones

Slow moving thunderstorms produced around 3 inches of rain in an hour to the north of Asheville causing a small area of flash flooding.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$20,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.

Slow moving thunderstorms produced around 3 inches of rain in an hour to the north of Asheville causing a small area of flash flooding.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 4:43 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 4:43 PM EST, 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL LINGER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM...TWEAKED THE POP/WX/SKY GRIDS TO MATCH UP WITH
RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH-RES MODELS STILL INDICATE
THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SURVIVE OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THANKS TO WEAK SHEAR...LACK OF LLVL CONVERGENCE...AND LOWER
MLCAPE (<500 J/KG ACRS THE UPSTATE). A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE ACRS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT WHERE CAPE MAY BE JUST ENUF FOR A FEW STORMS TO
APPROACH THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL
GIVEN LOW DCAPE IN THE MTNS AND RELATIVE MOIST PROFILES INVOF THE
FREEZING LEVEL. STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY LATE TONIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

ON TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ONLY MOVE MARGINALLY
EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS PERHAPS REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE
DAY. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON. A GUIDANCE BLEND PUTS TEMPS NEAR
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW CENTER MOVG NE TUE NIGHT-WED BUT
THE WEAK SFC FRONT SHOULD STILL MOVE SLOWLY E OF THE AREA BEFORE
WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY WED. RETURNING LOW LVL S FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP A CHC OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WED
AFTN-EVE...ESP OVER THE MTNS IN AREAS OF BEST UPSLOPE. THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SE US WED NIGHT-THU WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT AND OVER THE AREA...WHILE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA FOR A CONTINUING CHC OF SHWRS AND
TSTMS THU...ESP OVER THE MTNS WITH AFTN HEATING. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND REMAIN PREDOMINANT LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF PIEDMONT/VALLEYS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW(SE TO E) AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE WITH DRY ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S THU/FRI AND WARMING INTO THE LOW
90S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN MOVING WEST INTO THE GA/SC COAST BY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN QUESTION FPR THE NEAR TERM IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD CIRCA 00Z. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A VCSH
FROM 00Z-02Z. FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST A MID LEVEL CEILING IS EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK RESTRICTING THE VSBY TO
AROUND 5SM. LOOKS LIKE TUE'S CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z. WILL CARRY A TEMPO AT KAVL FOR
THUNDER AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM 20-22Z. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HENCE...WUILL CARRY A VCTS AT KHKY AND KGSP.
THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE IS FORCASTING AT LEAST MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVL.
CONVECTION WILL GET AN EARLY START ON TUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT KAVL BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL DIMINSH DIURNALLY TUE NIGHT
BUT RE-DEVELOP AGAIN WED AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE MORE LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG ARE A
GOOD BET MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EACH MORNING.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...LG
Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 1:53 PM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
253 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLIANS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUNG LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 21, 3:56 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NCZ035-056-502-504-212145-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
456 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL...SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER AND WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUDSON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
LENOIR...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUDSON...
  GRANITE FALLS...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...
  ST. STEPHENS...
  LONGVIEW...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3560 8120 3557 8150 3595 8153 3598 8131

RWH
Special weather statement, May 21, 4:12 PM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NCZ053-065-507-508-510-212200-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-
512 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
NORTHERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF BAT CAVE...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAT CAVE...
  CHIMNEY ROCK...
  LAKE LURE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3561 8228 3559 8229 3552 8215 3554 8205
      3550 8195 3528 8210 3536 8223 3540 8220
      3540 8225 3538 8227 3547 8241 3562 8231

RWH
Local storm report, May 21, 4:33 PM EST, 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             5 NNE BAT CAVE          35.52N 82.25W
05/21/2012  E0.50 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BROAD RIVER VOLUNTEER FIRE AND RESCUE HAD LOTS OF PEA TO
            MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

OUTLAW
Special weather statement, May 21, 4:35 PM EST, 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NCZ504>506-212215-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
535 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARION...
  GLENWOOD...
  GLENWOOD...
  LAKE JAMES...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3583 8195 3581 8199 3577 8194 3582 8186
      3580 8173 3560 8173 3561 8175 3559 8178
      3559 8180 3555 8184 3554 8218 3581 8215
      3585 8209

RWH
Special weather statement, May 21, 4:46 PM EST, 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NCZ056-212230-
CATAWBA-
546 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. STEPHENS...OR NEAR HICKORY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONOVER...
  NEWTON...
  MAIDEN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3555 8108 3557 8138 3572 8140 3580 8134
      3580 8130 3581 8128 3581 8122 3582 8121
      3582 8119

RWH
Special weather statement, May 21, 5:31 PM EST, 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NCZ048-053-212315-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-
631 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND EASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEAVERVILLE...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEAVERVILLE...
  WOODFIN...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...
  SWANNANOA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3554 8226 3544 8254 3577 8267 3584 8246

RWH

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:32 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 hail, 1 flash flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Burke

When
May 21, 5:32 PM EST
Where
Burke County, 1.38 mi S of Drexel
Measured
0.75 in hail
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.730, -81.600

Penny size hail was reported on Cook Rd.

Hail, Buncombe

When
May 21, 5:37 PM EST
Where
Buncombe County, 1.49 mi SSE of Weaverville
Measured
0.75 in hail
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.700, -82.560

Flash Flood, Buncombe

When
May 21, 6:00 PM EST to 7:30 PM EST
Where
Buncombe County, 0.51 mi NNE of Weaverville to 0.59 mi NNE of Weaverville
Cause
Heavy Rain
Property damage
$20,000
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue
Coordinates
35.727, -82.567

The Eden Glenn Mobile Home Park was flooded by Flat Creek after around 3 inches of rain fell in an hour. Approximately 30 people were evacuated from about 2 dozen mobile homes between 7 pm and midnight. One utility building floated away and there was underpinning damage to a few trailers. County officials reported that this same area flooded around 17 years ago.

Heavy Rain, Buncombe

When
May 21, 6:00 PM EST
Where
Buncombe County, 1.49 mi SSE of Weaverville
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
35.700, -82.560

Heavy rain resulted in some urban flooding in Weaverville, closing Main St for a brief period of time.

What these are

Hail
Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in North Carolina in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 385833, 385835, 385834, 385897.