Hail in North Carolina, May 19, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ALTERNATING SHEAVES OF THICK AND
THIN CIRRUS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
EMANATES FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SC COAST. WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE GEORGIA
AND THE SRN MTNS OF NC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ENHANCED CU.
EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THE
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD. CAPE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH...ALONG
WITH DECENT LAPS RATES...THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET.

WITH THAT...AND WITH SOME INTEREST...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE LOW MIGHT ULTIMATELY DEVELOP
MORE THAN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT. FORTUNATELY...THE LOW IS NOT MOVING FAST...OR AT LEAST NOT
FAST TO THE WEST. IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TYPICALLY REMAIN UNDER SOME KIND OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND ONLY SEE
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST AND NW SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM...AND UNTIL FURTHER GUIDANCE IS OBTAINED FROM THE
TPC...THAT IS THE PLAN WE GO WITH. PIEDMONT/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COVERGENCE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE MTNS...SUCH THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OWING TO
THE EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 1430 EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW ON THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
EVENING MOVES INLAND IN THE GFS TO SOUTHERN VA BY MONDAY MORNING...
WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NAM. THE NAM LOW MOVES UP
THE NC COAST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS ITS INITIAL LOW...
FORMING ANOTHER OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WHERE THE NAM CLOSES OFF A LOW.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
SHOWN TO MOVE WEST TO THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT IN
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS...REMAINING THERE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE TWO AREAS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER POPS WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING IN THE WEST AND MARGINAL
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE MOISTURE IN THE EAST.

ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES OF
TO THE EAST...WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WEAKENING FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH NAM ML CAPE OVER 1600 K/KG...
SUPPORTING THE BEST POPS YET. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL COOL POOL MAY SUPPORT LINGERING CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH A LIGHT
INCREASE A WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. BY NEXT MID WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HINTS A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND REMAINS
THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW
LINGERING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH
DAY THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THE CIRRUS VEIL SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO CONSTITUTE A HIGH LEVEL
CEILING FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
NE WITH A FEW GUSTS...BUT NOT AS PREVALENT AS THOUGHT EARLIER. THE
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT A PATCH OF VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON
SUNDAY MORNING...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LOW
OFF THE SC COAST...BUT THIS WOULD NOT RESULT IN A FLIGHT
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
LITTLE TN VALLEY. THE SRN MTNS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
THINK THE THICK CIRRUS WILL KEEP THIS FROM DEVELOPING AS FAR E AS
KAVL. AFTER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DIE OFF WITH SUNSET...EXPECT
PATCHES OF THICK CIRRUS TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN REGARDING A COASTAL LOW ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE LOW USUALLY MEANS ONLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE WRN CAROLINAS. SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MON THROUGH TUE AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. DRYING IS
THEN EXPECTED MID WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-
202115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
502 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-202115-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
502 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR HAIL AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             3 W MAYO                35.08N 81.91W
05/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZED FELL FROM
            PARRIS BRIDGE ROAD TO AROUND HIDDEN SPRINGS DRIVE WITH
            SOME OF THE LARGER HAIL AROUND TAFT DRIVE IN THE STORM
            LAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREE THAT FELL ON SANDY FORD
            ROAD BROKE OFF...NOT UPROOTED...AND MAY HAVE BEEN
            PARTIALLY ROTTEN. CORRECTION WAS BASED ON NOTES TAKEN
            STATING DIME SIZED HAIL ALSO FELL ON HIDDEN SPRINGS DRIVE.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NCZ053-065-192200-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
526 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLETCHER...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  ETOWAH...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8235 3524 8255 3529 8262 3532 8263
      3541 8273 3558 8255

ARK