A slow moving upper level low pressure system moving across the Tennessee Valley triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina and Virginia. A few storm became severe in North Carolina, where atmospheric instability was greatest.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A slow moving upper level low pressure system moving across the Tennessee Valley triggered widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina and Virginia. A few storm became severe in North Carolina, where atmospheric instability was greatest. The ground was observed to be saturated in many areas along the Blue Ridge from rainfall during previous days, which helped to enhance the flooding threat.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 4:34 PM EST, 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 534 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK THEN SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS BACK TO LIKELYS OR CATEGORICAL ESPCLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY IN NW NC. WONT RAISE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT BUT WILL CONSIDER PENDING HOW MUCH THE COVERAGE FILLS BACK IN OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY.... SOME WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO A BROKEN SKY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS RAIN HAD LIMITED MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM ARE BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO QPF TONIGHT...BUT SEEM TO BE WAY OVERDONE CONSIDERING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ATTM. LOCAL MODELS ARE DRIER AND SEEM TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE SLOW WET BIAS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT. SHOWERS LATE THIS PM AND THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS END WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THEN IN THE WEST AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVERHEAD INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS SOME OF THEM SLOW MOVERS PUTTING DOWN A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WIT SOME PARTLY SUNNY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY... LOOKING A SFC FRONT WORKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO VIRGINIA. ONCE ONE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL WORK OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL STILL SEE LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT INTO WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THRU THE DAY. WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...THE PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW < 30 PERCENT...AS MODELS SHOW MAIN THREAT STAYING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD OUT EAST WITH UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 WHILE SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST ALLOWS FOR SOME COOLER AIR BUT WITH PLENTY OF GROUND MOISTURE...THINK AROUND 50 IS AS COLD AS IT GETS. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING SKIES AND SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE WV AND FAR SW VA MTNS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN ESPECIALLY EAST. JURY IS STILL OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT AND CLEARING. ATTM...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LVL FLOW SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS FORMATION ALONG/EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL STILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. HAVE IT MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH MODELS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND COAST. THE 12Z NAM/GFS KEEP THETA-E AXIS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SRN VA MTNS/NRN NC. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THU AFTN...WITH MOST AREA STAYING DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED EXCEPT SEEMS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. MAY SEE ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY FETCH FOR SOME STRATUS AT NIGHT...BUT THE FACT ITS A FEW DAYS AWAY AND THE FLOW IS MORE NE...WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. GOING TO KEEP AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN INTO MONDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW STAYING OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE WEST VIRGINIA/SW VA MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 740 AM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY BUBBLE UP IN THE BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLF/JFZ/GEV/TNB CORRIDOR. WITH SOME OF THE CLEARING WORKING NORTHEAST...THE IFR CIGS SHOULD BE REMOVED EVEN AT KLYH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF CLEARING WORKS FAR ENOUGH EAST...SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT DAN LATE THIS PM. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN AND QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH BREAKS DEVELOP FOR LIFR VIS AT LWB/BCB TONIGHT CONSIDERING VERY MOIST LLVLS. THINK THAT IFR CIGS THOUGH ARE A BETTER BET AT LWB/LYH/BCB AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER TAF SITES. CIGS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING...AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN...POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. DRIER AIR SHOULD FINALLY WORK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR...ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR THEN LOOKS TO PREVAIL BY WEEKS END WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...KM/RAB NEAR TERM...JH/KM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KM/RAB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 355 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>045-152000- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON- CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- GREENBRIER- 355 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 430 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 NCZ003-020-142100- SURRY NC-YADKIN NC- 430 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SURRY AND YADKIN COUNTIES... AT 427 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ELKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BOONVILLE AROUND 455 PM AND BURCH AROUND 500 PM. LAT...LON 3637 8077 3630 8060 3612 8080 3615 8087 DS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
438 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
NCZ018-142115-
WATAUGA NC-
438 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WATAUGA COUNTY...
AT 435 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOSES CONE MEMORIAL PARK AROUND 505 PM AND
AHO AROUND 515 PM.
LAT...LON 3625 8164 3612 8154 3611 8155 3611 8179
3611 8181 3611 8182 3613 8182
DSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
NCZ019-142130-
WILKES NC-
505 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WILKES COUNTY...
AT 501 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM MC GRADY
TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WILBAR AROUND 510 PM...MAPLE SPRINGS AROUND
520 PM...HALLS MILLS AROUND 525 PM AND ABSHERS AROUND 530 PM.
LAT...LON 3609 8149 3609 8152 3611 8154 3614 8150
3620 8146 3621 8147 3636 8128 3641 8104
3638 8103 3607 8143
DSThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:43 UTC.
2 hail, 2 flash flood, 1 lightning, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning caused structural damage to a storage shed along Highway 16 in the Millers Creek community.
Nickel to quarter size hail was observed beginning at 5:53 PM EDT and ending at 5:56 PM EDT at the intersection of Congo Road and Winkler Mill Road, as well as along Highway 421.
Two trees were blown down near the intersection of Congo Road and Winkler Mill Road.
Six to eight inches of water was observed flowing over a bridge on Congo Road. The swift movement of the water swept one car off the roadway into a nearby ditch.
Water was observed flowing over a bridge on Dinkins Bottoms Road, bringing down multiple trees due to the strong flow of the water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 383776, 383774, 383779, 384170, 383780, 383781.