Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 1, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...LOW LEVEL STRATOCU FIELD DISSIPATED NEAR DAYBREAK
THEN RETURNED ACROSS THE SRN CWFA AS HEATING BEGAN. CU DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTNS NEARLY AS EXPECTED. THE CU FIELD OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
SHUD EXPAND SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE MTNS. 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY. IN
FACT...THE WX PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR AS WELL. THEREFORE...THE
GOING FCST LOOKS QUITE GOOD. DID EXPAND SCT CONVECTION TO ALL THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AND ISOLATED TO THE SRN PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHC OF CONVECTION IN
THESE AREAS THAN MONDAY. STILL EXPECT ANY CONVECTION OVER NE GA AND
THE UPSTATE TO BE LIMITED TO THE NC BORDER AREA. SVR CHANCES LOOK TO
BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS WELL...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHC OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH THE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCE. HIGHS WERE
RAISED A FEW DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH OBSERVED
MORNING THICKNESSES.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE. EXPECT THE DAY TO PLAY OUT VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
IN SPITE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO KEEP A LID ON THE DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE
THE MTNS WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER. THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DO
THE TRICK. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE MTNS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW MOVING OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND NC
PIEDMONT IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. A FEW OF THEM WILL HAVE LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL. THINK NE GEORGIA AND MOST OF THE UPSTATE WILL BE
LEFT OUT AGAIN...WHICH SEEMS TYPICAL WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT
AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL GA. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. NUDGED TEMPS
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY HOT DAYS ARE IN
STORE FOR WED AND THU. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CENTER OVER
THE SE STATES AND STACK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL CREATE
STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND SUPPRESS ANY MIXING OF LOWER THETA/E AIR
ALOFT TO THE SFC OR ALLOW A HORIZONTAL AIRMASS MIX. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TD/S RELATIVELY UNIFORM IN THE U50S TO L60S AND HOLD MIN TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
H5....ESPECIALLY ON THU. THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RECORD HIGH MAXES
TO BE REACHED BOTH DAYS...WHICH ARE SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. THE STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO TRAP EMISSIONS AND COULD
CREATE HIGH OZONE LEVELS. CONVECTION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO
THE NC MTNS WHERE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KAVL INDICATE LLVL CIN SHOULD BE
OVERCOME BY 18Z WED ALLOWING SBCAPE VALUES OF 1400 J/KG TO BE
UTILIZED BY DEVELOPING STORMS. LOW SHEAR AND THE LACK OF AN AGREED
UPON S/W WILL MAKE FOR A PULSE STORM MODE WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
AS AVAILABLE LLVL DRY AIR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD ACCELERATIONS IN A DEEP HAIL GROWTH REGION...SO SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST LOOKS GOOD AND LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. STILL EXPECT STRONG RIGING TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN ON FRI WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NRN ZONES SAT AND POPS WERE RAISED TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS SAT AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN BECOMES DOMINANT TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY SUN AND MON. THIS COULD BE A SETUP
FOR NOCTURNAL MCS/S ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON.
TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT EVOLTUTION...SO POPS WERE MAINTAINED
IN THE SLIGHT CAT. VERY LITTLE AIRMASS MIX WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SAT/S FRONT AND WITH A SUB ZONE REMAINING OVERHEAD...MAX TEMPS FRI
THROUGH MON WILL BE ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME
RECORD HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATENED FRI THROUGH SUN. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. MINS WILL REMAIN WARM AS WELL...ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A PATCHY MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT
OF NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF VFR AND
MVFR UNTIL ABOUT 14Z...AFTER WHICH TIME THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT. SHOULD BE VFR WITH A S TO SW WIND FROM THAT POINT ONWARD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...THE PATCHY MVFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS UPSTATE
SC AND NE GEORGIA...SO KGSP AND KGMU IN PARTICULAR MAY BE IN AND OUT
OF THE LOW CLOUD CEILING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MORNING.
CLOUDINESS OVER THE MTNS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRECLUDE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KAVL. A BRIEF MVFR CEILING WILL NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MORNING AS SOLAR HEATING
DEVELOPS A CU FIELD...BUT BASES SHOULD RISE UP ABOVE 030 BY 16Z AT
THE LATEST. EXPECT S TO SW WIND TO CONTINUE. THE MTNS AND NRN
FOOTHILLS OF NC STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM THAT...MOST OF THE
TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 91F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 90F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F
MAY 6TH  92F IN 1977...FORECAST 90F

KCLT
MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 88F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902...FORECAST 91F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935...FORECAST 86F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 86F
MAY 6TH  88F IN 1950...FORECAST 85F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
538 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
85...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 WSW TRAVELERS REST    34.95N 82.51W
04/27/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            BRIEF DIME SIZED HAIL.

0838 PM     HAIL             4 NNW SPRUCE PINE       35.97N 82.11W
04/30/2012  E1.25 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   PUBLIC

            HARDWARE STORE BETWEEN SPRUCE PINE AND BAKERSVILLE HAD
            ABOUT 10 MINUTES OF HAIL WITH THE LARGEST BEING AS LARGE
            AS A HALF DOLLAR. NOT MUCH WIND.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PUMPKINTOWN         34.96N 82.65W
04/27/2012                   PICKENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DACUSVILLE FIRE DEPARTMENT REMOVED A TREE FROM POWERLINES
            ON CONNELLY ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW