Hail in North Carolina, March 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN GULF WEATHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE PICTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...PLENTY OF INSTBY ACRS THE CWFA...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATTM. WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG ACRS THE PIEDMONT...A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. UPDATED THE POPS TO RELFECT RADAR TRENDS.
OVERALL...HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE UPSTATE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WHILE ISOLD CONVECTION WANES ACRS
THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.

AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF TI WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IN A NW FLOW WITH
DRYING BELOW 850 MB IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SYSTEM. NAM CAPE
EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND UP TO
1000 J/KG APPEARS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND.

THE FRONT EXITS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT NO MORE THAN PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS SUPPORTED AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES AWAY FROM
OUR AREA...LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...AN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS SOME BRIEF MOISTURE AT 850 MB
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAV CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THE
NAM ONLY SINGLE DIGITS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR MID MAY
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH NW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH AND EASTERN PORTION OF A MISS VALLEY
RIDGE.  MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AND OFF THE JERSEY COAST EARLY MONDAY.  DISSIPATING ENERGY WILL
LEAVE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER NC MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CLT AND GSP IF THE
FORECAST HOLDS.  MOUNTAIN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
THE RECORD AT AVL OF 87 DEGREES...BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD
BREAK THE RECORD OF 84 AT GSP AND THE 86 RECORD AT CLT.

THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT NO
LONGER A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
CERTAINLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS OF 87 AT GSP AND 90 AT
CLT.  CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING ON TUESDAY AS WE WILL HAVE A
FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  GFS HAS
CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 1600 RANGE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE GA
AND UPSTATE AND NOSING INTO THE SHELBY AND GASTON AREA OF NC.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO
FRIDAY WHEN THOSE WERE EXTREMELY DIFFERENT BY DAY 7.  AT 00Z
WED...BOTH HAVE THE LOW GENERALLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE GFS
HAS IT MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND OPENING IT UP BY 00Z FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES SE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM KENTUCKY.  THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A CUT OFF LOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO REACH SAVANNAH GA AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THERE ARE VARIOUS SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FEATURE WHICH AFFECTS OUR WEATHER IN MID TO
LATE WEEK.  HPC WENT CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND THAT ONE HAS
MORE OF A DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EASTERN GREAT LAKES / PA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS THE CUT OFF LOW BECOMING
ALMOST STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NEAR SAVANNAH.  THIS
BEING DISCOUNTED...WE SHOULD HAVE DRYING CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
THAT NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
GOING WITH BEST CONVECTION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHEAR
VALUES LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE TDWR DOES SHOW SOME SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SWD. SO
THINK THE WIND SHUD SHIFT TO PREDOMINATELY N...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY JUST SOME CIRRUS WITH LGT WINDS. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTIC...WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG IN
THE AREA. SO ONLY GOING MVFR BR AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR RETURNS BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS VEER FROM N/NE TO S AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF TSRA HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH OF
KGMU/KGSP...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KAND. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING N/NE THIS EVENING. FAIRLY DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN FELL AT KGMU AND KGSP. SO THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT THOSE
SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU AND USHER IN
DRIER AIR. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY MVFR BR AT KAND/KHKY PER
PREVIOUS TAF...AND AT KGMU/KGSP. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SWLY WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION TUE AND WED. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-312330-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEPHENS...HART...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF WESTMINSTER...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  MARTIN...
  WHITWORTH...
  LAVONIA...
  LAVONIA...
  REED CREEK...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3470 8329 3477 8309 3453 8294 3448 8299
      3448 8291 3431 8280 3423 8304 3422 8308

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
722 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

NCZ057-072-312345-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
722 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CABARRUS AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KANNAPOLIS...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF CONCORD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONCORD...
  MOUNT PLEASANT...

LAT...LON 3533 8041 3530 8042 3520 8053 3521 8056
      3523 8059 3550 8077 3560 8059 3537 8037

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             9 S GREENVILLE          34.71N 82.37W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED FELL AT THE MOONVILLE FIRE
            DEPARTMENT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE SOUTHERN
            CONNECTOR AND HIGHWAY 25. HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0710 PM     HAIL             4 S GREENVILLE          34.78N 82.37W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORT RELAYED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE
            AT INTERSTATE 85 AND WHITE HORSE ROAD.

0712 PM     HAIL             5 SSE GREENVILLE        34.77N 82.34W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER AT THE MOTOR
            MILE OF HIGHWAY 276 AND INTERSTATE 85.

0630 PM     HAIL             8 SE GREENVILLE         34.76N 82.27W
03/31/2012  E0.88 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT BONNNIE BRAE GOLF COURSE TO
            THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF MAULDIN.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             7 SE WILLIAMSTON        34.56N 82.38W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            COOLEY BRIDGE RD AREA.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

NCZ068-SCZ008-009-010015-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-YORK-
750 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...NORTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF EARL...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SHELBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EARL...
  BLACKSBURG...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3508 8128 3494 8149 3523 8174 3534 8157

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             6 NW GREENVILLE         34.90N 82.44W
03/31/2012  E1.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            ANNISTON WAY...OLD BUNCOMBE RD AREA.

&&

CSH