Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 13, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM WED...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR HAS DWINDLED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER...WEAK VORT LOBES ARE
STILL PROGGED BY THE 18Z MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE SW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL TRIM POPS BACK A
LITTLE...BUT STILL FEATURE LOW END CHANCES IN MAINLY THE SRN HALF
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT...AS THE DEEPEST LINGERING
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND FORCING COME TOGETHER THERE ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ON THU AS A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SPRAWLING
HIGH TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. WEAKLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WRN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF
NOTE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS ERN CANADA AND RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST PRETTY QUICKLY THU NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SAT.

THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A CP AIR MASS TO BE REINFORCED AND MIXED INTO
THE REGION WITH SFC TD/S LOWERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH FRI
AND SAT. THIS WILL OFFSET ANY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS AND LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED ANYWAY. THE BEST MOISTURE ADV WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY FRI BEFORE THE
LOWER THETA/E ADV ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA ON SAT. OTHER
THAN ISOL AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS THE NC MTNS...THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AS
SFC-H8 WINDS PERSIST NE/LY. MINS WILL ALSO BE A CAT OR SO BELOW
NORMAL EACH MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS AND A THE P/GRAD
REMAINING TIGHT ALLOWING A MIX INTO RELATIVELY COOL AIR ABOVE THE
SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS
WITH THE EXT RANGE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 7. BASICALLY EXPECT THE MID
CONTINENT RIDGE AXIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND IMPINGE UPON THE
ANOMALOUS ATL TROF...WHICH ITSELF WILL ADJUST IT/S LOCATION PER THE
PARENT REX BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN ATL. ANYWAY...THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE ATL COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO SOME DEGREE. A LLVL THETA/E ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH RELATIVELY LOW TD/S. THE NE/LY
SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MON...BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
E/LY THROUGH TUE...BEFORE A MORE SE/LY FETCH IS REALIZED BY WED.
THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE CWFA WITH DIURNAL RIDGE TOP
CONVERGENCE PROVIDING THE BEST FORCING FOR ANY -SHRA. EXPECT ONLY
FAIR WX CU NON/MTNS. POPS WERE MAINTAINED AT SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON...WITH A SOMEWHAT LARGER COVERAGE
PATTERN ADVERTISED FOR WED. ALL IN ALL...A NICE STRETCH OF DAYS ARE
IN STORE WITH TD/S REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
SUN/MON AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TUE/WED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAINLY SCT CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD ON PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...DESPITE A WEAK PASSING UPPER WAVE AND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE N TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS LARGELY
DWINDLED ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. KAND WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOISTURE
PERSISTING ON NE FLOW. EXPECT NE SFC WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIGHT TONIGHT AT KAVL BECOMING SE ON
THU. KAVL COULD ALSO SEE MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH
DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-142000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
351 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY THE PIEDMONT OF THE UPSTATE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-142000-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
351 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ005-132100-
GREATER PICKENS-
435 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTRAL...OR 3 MILES NORTH OF CLEMSON...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLEMSON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3467 8285 3477 8287 3479 8276 3470 8273
      3465 8283

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ004-132115-
GREATER OCONEE-
446 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEMSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN OCONEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

SENECA...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3465 8300 3477 8294 3478 8290 3476 8289
      3474 8290 3472 8286 3470 8287 3466 8284
      3464 8284 3463 8285 3462 8284 3462 8287
      3460 8286

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ001-004-132145-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
516 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WESTMINSTER...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3454 8303 3462 8319 3471 8307 3468 8298

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ010-132145-
ANDERSON-
519 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...OR 10 MILES EAST
OF CLEMSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3464 8277 3474 8266 3474 8265 3471 8254
      3456 8257

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

NCZ506-140200-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
927 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 922 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEBO...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3571 8187 3559 8183 3556 8184 3553 8189
      3555 8202 3572 8194

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ014-140200-
CHESTER-
929 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 925 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHESTER...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3456 8136 3459 8142 3461 8142 3472 8127
      3468 8118 3456 8126 3456 8129

LANE