Heat in North Carolina, July 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A
WEAK UPPER TROF SETS UP TO OUR WEST. ONCE ESTABLISHED...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0940 EDT...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF MT VALLEY FOG OVER FAR WESTERN NC. OTHERWISE...MOST SITES
ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT FROM THE EAST. I EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS
EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS CURRENT
SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS OF A MID LVL CAP IN PLACE AND DEWPTS ARE HIGHER
OVERALL. FZ LVLS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN BY ROUGHLY A 1000FT OR SO
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO THE HAIL POTENTIAL IS BETTER AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0630 EDT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOST NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
BASED ON THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT...BUT NOT IN THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER VALLEY. POPS WERE REDUCED EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW TO MID
CLOUDS ARE ABSENT. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT AS CLOSE TO BEING CAPPED AT MID LEVELS AS YESTERDAY...AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE BETTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST....
WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COINCIDE WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS...AND WET BULB ZEROS ARE NOT
TOO HIGH FOR HAIL. SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER HIGH. APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREE FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THERE. INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY DECREASES TONIGHT WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT...AND ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...IF ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN...THE SHORT
RANGE WILL BE MODULATED BY AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAKNESS EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEY IN
BETWEEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST AND THE RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...PROVIDING A STEADY
DIET OF WEAK UPPER VORTS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EASILY TIMED. AT THE
SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY THE END OF MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME IDEA WE HAD EARLIER. THE
MAIN ADJUSTMENT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT OF A DELAY IN BRINGING THE FRONT
AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 90S AGAIN E OF THE MTNS...SO AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. THE
SRN ZONES MIGHT NOT GET MUCH PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ONCE
ESTABLISHED...FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY
AS THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR
WEST. IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN...ANY BIT OF WEAK FORCING WILL BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUCH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC
SHOWERS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE ONGOING FCST
HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY
DEVELOP IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR KEEPING POP IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...BUT THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS BRINGING US BACK TO THE USUAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A SCATTERED LOW DECK BY MIDDAY AS HEATING OCCURS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW IN THE PIEDMONT...DESPITE INSTABILITY...AS NO
UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTER OF AN UPPER HIGH. SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT KAVL IS NOT VERY PROMISING
FOR FOG...BUT THEY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 11 AND 12Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS IN NC...BUT CLEAR SKIES IN SC AND GA. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD FORM
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALL SITES...EXCEPT KCLT...WILL
GET PROB30 FOR THUNDER AND A LOW VFR CIG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST. MVFR FOG WILL NOT BE
CARRIED AT KAVL MONDAY MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A TROUGH.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 8TH  96 IN 1988

GSP
JULY 8TH  101 IN 1986

CLT
JULY 8TH  101 IN 2010

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JAT/JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>012-019-091000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
GREENWOOD-
546 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS...BUT A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-013-014-091000-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
546 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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